The Hindu : Why Modi deferred the decision on Assembly dissolution

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Apr 19, 2002

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Why Modi deferred the decision on Assembly dissolution

By Manas Dasgupta

GANDHINAGAR APRIL 18. The fast-changing political scenario in Delhi and in Gandhinagar is believed to have forced the Narendra Modi Government in Gujarat to defer a decision on dissolution of the State Assembly and the issue of seeking a fresh mandate from the people.

Contrary to what the party State unit president, Rajendrasinh Rana, said on Monday, Wednesday's Cabinet meeting chaired by Mr. Modi did not even discuss the issue, far from taking a decision on it.

The decision to take up the issue in the Cabinet apparently was taken at Sunday's meeting of the co-ordination committee chaired by Mr. Rana but on D-day, the matter was not only dropped by Mr. Modi, the Cabinet took the stand that the issue was not even slated for discussion.

Since the minimum requirement for recommending dissolution of the Assembly is a Cabinet resolution, it was expected to follow the co-ordination committee's footsteps authorising the Chief Minister to take the decision at an appropriate time. But the Cabinet was apparently forced to keep mum on the issue due to the developments in the intervening 48 hours that were threatening the stability of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance Government at the Centre and the doubts raised over the outcome of the Assembly elections.

Many of the party members of the Assembly seem less certain about the success of the BJP in the next elections as Mr. Modi and some of his urban-based party colleagues are. While Kutch is upset over the Government's failure to provide a meaningful rehabilitation to last year's earthquake-affected people, doubts have been raised by the party MLAs from the vast Saurashtra and the south Gujarat regions about the "Hindu card" actually translating into votes for the BJP.

Not only that the Saurashtra and south Gujarat regions, which together have over 90 seats in the Assembly, are by and large unaffected by the communal carnage, the people in rural Gujarat, facing an acute shortage of water and power, are little impressed by the Government's performance to be carried away by the Hindu card. A Minister from the Saurashtra region admitted that he did not believe that the BJP could get more than 60 seats if the elections were held in the peak summer season. "Even 60 may be on a very high side," he said.

A large number of party delegations from various parts of the State made a bee-line for Gandhinagar this week to give a piece of their mind to the party leadership on early elections. Many of them — certain that the axe would fall on them in the allocation of ticket for the next elections when Mr. Modi is expected to pack the House with people personally loyal to him — are opposed to early elections and want the present House to complete the full term. Others believe that elections in the peak of summer might prove disastrous for the party.

Mr. Modi needs time to put his own house in order before challenging the Congress in the elections. After three successive years of failure of the monsoon, water shortage has assumed serious proportions in the Kutch-Saurashtra and north Gujarat regions and the non-availability of hydel power, coupled with a simultaneous increase in demand from the farm sector to harness sub-soil water to save the standing crops, has made power supply critical.

The Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, farmers' wing of the BJP, has threatened to launch an agitation against the Government if the critical water and power problems are not solved. The water crisis is looming large even in the urban centres, including major cities such as Ahmedabad, Baroda, Rajkot and Jamnagar.

With the communal riots having hit hard trade and commerce as well as the poorer sections, doubts have been raised about their support to the BJP in the Assembly elections. The initial euphoria is giving way to scepticism whether the "Hindu card" alone would be able to put the BJP back in power.

The possibility of the MLAs missing the crucial July presidential elections if the House is dissolved before that and fresh elections are not held by the Election Commission is another reason for Mr. Modi to delay an early decision on the dissolution of the Assembly. The BJP national executive apparently had overlooked the issue while adopting the Goa resolution advising Mr. Modi to seek a fresh mandate. The Modi Government was also not sure if the Election Commission would agree to hold elections by June, irrespective of the law and order situation and rehabilitation of the riot victims. A lot will also depend on peaceful conduct of the second phase of the secondary and higher secondary examinations which began from today in Ahmedabad, Baroda and some other towns where the first phase of examinations last month were disrupted by communal violence.

The stand taken by various NDA partners on the continuation of Mr. Modi as the Chief Minister and holding of elections in the communally surcharged atmosphere is also believed to have prompted the BJP high command to advise the Gujarat Government to go slow on the dissolution move.

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Why Modi deferred the decision on Assembly dissolution