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By Vaiju Naravane
While electoral officers expect a last-minute surge as polls close, they fear turnout will prove to be the lowest for a presidential vote since the Fifth Republic was constituted in 1958 by Charles de Gaulle. Some commentators said abstention rates could be as high as 35 per cent. "It's a beautiful day, some parts of the country are in the midst of school holidays, there are too many candidates, all uninspiring, debate has been nonexistent and we're bound to see a repeat second-round scenario of the duel between Chirac and Jospin in 1995. So many reasons for a poor turnout," said journalist Alain Guede. Although 16 candidates are in the fray for the first round, all opinion polls point to a second-round run-off between the Conservative Gaullist President, Jacques Chirac, and his Socialist Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin; the two also faced each other in the last presidential poll, held in 1995. Two years later, when Mr. Chirac ill-advisedly dissolved Parliament and called for fresh elections, a left-wing coalition made up of Socialists, Communists, Greens and other leftist parties was fervently voted into power. For the past five years, the two rivals have been locked into an uncomfortable, often hostile political power-sharing exercise known here as co-habitation. Mr. Chirac is expected to emerge the frontrunner today, followed by Mr. Jospin. But neither candidate is expected to garner more than 22 per cent of the votes cast a severe rebuke from voters disappointed with both man's performance. "Just calculate. Suppose only 40 per cent of the electorate votes, that is to say there are only 16 million votes cast. Of these, Mr. Chirac wins 22 per cent, or about 3.5 million votes, while Mr. Jospin gets less than 3 million votes. What a slap in the face. How can either of these candidates confidently say they represent the French? This is a disavowal of their policies and their leadership," complains Mr. Guede. Several small extreme candidates are expected to mop up votes from the leaders. The extreme right-wing leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen, is expected to come in third, with over 13 per cent of the vote.
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