The Hindu : Between war and surrender

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Apr 29, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Between war and surrender

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI APRIL 28 . Does the Government have a Plan B if its Plan A does not work on the border with Pakistan? Is the Government thinking of strategic alternatives if its explicit threat to go to war does not persuade the Pakistani leadership to give up on cross-border terrorism?

If the Government, busy this week defending its dismal record in Gujarat, does not quickly concentrate its political energies in dealing with the military situation on the border, the riskiest strategic manoeuvre India has ever initiated is likely to end up in a humiliating political defeat.

After the shocking December 13 attacks on the Parliament House, India threw much of its military might on the border with Pakistan with a very simple message to Islamabad — either end cross-border terrorism or face the consequences. The hints from Gen. Musharraf are that he is ready to call the Indian bluff.

The Indian military mobilisation and the Anglo-American diplomatic intervention nudged the President of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, into promising, on January 12, a crackdown on the jehadi forces at home and prevent the use of Pakistani territory to foment terrorism across the border.

India was not ready to believe Gen. Musharraf's words and wanted to see evidence on the ground which would not come until the snows melted. The first indications are that there is no substantive reduction in cross-border terrorism.

If the next few weeks confirm that Gen. Musharraf has no intention to honour his words, New Delhi will face a stark choice. It will either have to escalate the military pressure on Pakistan with all the consequent risks or tamely concede its willingness to live with a perpetual threat of cross-border terrorism.

A conscious Indian decision to raise the military temperature on the border will have to be accompanied by a serious diplomatic effort to maintain international pressure on Gen. Musharraf and a determined bid to restore the national resolve demonstrated after December 13.

A failure to persuade Pakistan on cross-border terrorism will also have its impact on the elections in Kashmir due later this year. All the planned political initiatives of the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, in Kashmir will go up in smoke if he cannot pursue the coercive diplomacy against Pakistan to its logical conclusion.

Forget for a moment the beating India's image has taken in the world in the last couple of months of bloodletting in Gujarat. That pain will be nothing compared to the strategic reversals that await India on its borders with Pakistan and in Kashmir. Mr. Vajpayee can either hang on to Narendra Modi or vigorously implement the national security agenda. He cannot do both.

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Meanwhile Sino-Indian relations appear to be on a roll. Within weeks of the External Affairs Minister, Jaswant Singh's visit to China officials from the two sides have met to consider cooperation in combating international terrorism.

The decision to hold the dialogue was announced during Mr. Singh's visit to China last month.

India and China will also soon exchange hydrological data on the Brahmaputra river for the first time since 1962 war between the two nations. The exchange of data will help the Indian side better manage the floods in the North-East.

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Physically linking India's North-East to neighbouring Asian countries was one of the principal objectives of Mr. Singh's travels in Asia last month. Early next month the North-Eastern State of Sikkim is hosting an international seminar to discuss the prospects for economic cooperation between the region and various Asian countries.

Scholars from China are expected to be among the participants. Sikkim is keen on opening up to mutually beneficial border trade with the Tibet region in China. Beijing too is intent on developing its remote provinces like Tibet through external trade.

The time appears ripe for India and China to resolve their differences on Sikkim and let people on both sides of the border prosper through trade.

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What is a demarche? It is an official representation by a diplomat or a group diplomats from different countries to the host nation. It usually involves a request for action or decision from the host nation on a matter of concern to other governments.

Over the recent years India has received many demarches, mostly on Indo-Pak relations and on its nuclear and missile programmes. Thanks to the BJP Government in Gujarat, India's internal governance is now up for international scrutiny.

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