The Hindu : After the vote

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, May 02, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

After the vote

By K.K. Katyal

The marathon debate on Gujarat in the Lok Sabha took place on anticipated lines, with one exception — its level was much lower and the acrimony and chaos were more pronounced than had been imagined. On the eve of the debate, however, the BJP was taken aback by certain sudden developments. The implications of the tense 16 hours, too, would not be a matter of surprise. What was regarded a theoretical possibility — notably the rift between the BJP and its allies in the ruling National Democratic Alliance — became a reality and, as such, the consequences could be gauged with greater precision.

The voting tally on the motion, criticising the Government for its treatment of the minorities, especially in Gujarat, could not have been more deceptive. The 94-vote lead by the Government was no index of the relative strength of the Treasury Benches and the Opposition. Some of those who supported the Government took it to task for its handling of Gujarat. That the ruling side was rattled under the onslaught of a united Opposition was far too obvious. The comfort that may have been derived by the Government on numbers was considerably neutralised by the shifts in the intra-NDA balance to the detriment of the BJP. The voting figures may be forgotten soon but the BJP will find it hard to ignore the meaning of the conduct of some of its allies. Given the non-committal attitude of the Telugu Desam Party, its key supporter from outside, the BJP had reconciled itself to the loss of its backing. But it was not prepared for the resignation of Ram Vilas Paswan and the exit of its outfit, though tiny, from the NDA as also the National Conference decision to abstain from voting.

One point is very clear: the Government has emerged as a weak entity out of this episode. The cracks within the NDA are irreparable but there is no rupture as yet (excluding the Paswan case). What was the dominant sentiment of the angry allies or supporters? To distance themselves from the BJP's attitude on the Gujarat carnage, and they adopted this line with an eye on their constituency among the Muslims. To bring down the NDA Government was not part of their strategy. That is the position as of now, there being no guarantee that it would not change. In fact, the desertions from the NDA may well start when the next general election gets closer. When that happens, the present developments would be regarded, in retrospect, as the starting point of the process.

Of immediate interest is the attitude of the Telugu Desam Party. Will it continue its supportive role now that it has demarcated itself from the Centre's handling of Gujarat? The first indication will come soon — whether or not it agrees to field one of its party members for election to the Lok Sabha Speaker's post. As for the allies, there will be increased emphasis on the NDA agenda. Gujarat was the second case in which they saw a departure by the BJP from the agreed commitments. Not long ago they made known their disenchantment with the BJP over its tilt towards its agenda, as shown by the support to the idea of "symbolic puja'' in Ayodhya on the land covered by a court case.On its part, the BJP will find itself subjected to increased pressures from two opposite directions — on the one hand, from the hawks in the Sangh Parivar and, on the other, from the allies. This will require a higher degree of skill by the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, to conduct a tightrope walk.

Of late, there has been a major change in the composition of the NDA and its supporters — without any formal announcement. The AIADMK is again getting close to the ruling combine at the Centre, to the discomfiture of the DMK, an important ally. The BSP and Mayawati are among the new supporters just when Mr. Paswan has parted company. And on the political scene as a whole, there will be a marked sharpening of the confrontation between the Government and the Opposition leading to increase in tension.

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