Friday, May 10, 2002
Friday, May 10, 2002 |
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By Atul Aneja
Both the leaders are expected to attend the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Almaty in the Central Asian Republic. According to sources in the security establishment, neither India nor Pakistan appears to be in a mood to restart negotiations, notwithstanding the statements from Islamabad advocating the revival of talks. The assessment here is that Gen. Musharraf is focussed on the October general elections in Pakistan and that maintaining an anti-India stance, especially over Kashmir, can help him acquire greater legitimacy. Not surprisingly, despite the Indian insistence, Pakistan is not inclined to restrict cross-border infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir. On the contrary, infiltration in March has risen, the officials say. Incidentally, the United States, it appears, is willing to acknowledge in private that infiltrations in Jammu and Kashmir may go up this summer. In fact, the U.S. reportedly conveyed that cross-border intrusion from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir would increase in the coming months to the Russians when the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, met his Russian counterpart, Igor Ivanov, in Madrid recently. It is estimated that Pakistan may be pushing in 3000 people into Jammu and Kashmir in the next few months. Anticipating a possible hardening of Pakistan's disposition towards India, sources said that Gen. Musharraf might effect major changes in the military establishment and bureaucracy, now that his much-publicised "referendum'' has been concluded. While no definite trend has emerged so far, it is possible that hardliners, with a pronounced negative stand against India, may be drawn into prominent decision-making positions. Pakistan's unwillingness to act against the 20 listed terrorists wanted by India has also dampened the spirits for talks. With the present chill in the Indo-Pakistan relations discernible, India, on its part, has also decided to take unilateral steps in Jammu and Kashmir. It is committed to conducting the Assembly elections successfully. It is also likely to continue deploying its forces along the border to prevent infiltrators from disrupting the elections. India's persistence with its troop build-up, at least till autumn, is likely to deepen the polarisation with Pakistan, which has been demanding an Indian "deescalation.'' Notwithstanding public statements, there is little diplomatic pressure on India to revive talks or deescalate from the borders. The U.S., however, during the visit of Gen. Powell earlier this year, had suggested that the Indian forces need not always be kept on hair-trigger alert along the borders. Advocating a relatively ``relaxed'' miltary posture, the U.S., for instance, wanted that combat aircraft be positioned without being armed with bombs and missiles all the time. Frontline troops also could be located in some depth, so that eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with the Pakistani forces was discouraged.
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