The Hindu : `Full-scale war' not an option

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, May 17, 2002

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`Full-scale war' not an option

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI MAY 16. In responding to the terrorist attack near Jammu on Tuesday, India may not have the option of engaging Pakistan in a full-scale war.

Analysts here point to four key reasons that are likely to discourage a full-scale military retaliation against Pakistan. First, the United States, as of now, is likely to strongly discourage India from taking military action against Pakistan. This is because an Indo-Pak. war is likely to undermine some of the core U.S. objectives.

For instance, the beginning of unbridled hostilities between India and Pakistan at the present juncture is likely to derail the U.S. campaign against terrorism in Afghanistan whose "centre of gravity'' is shifting to the Afghan-Pakistan border areas. Any conflict with India will naturally mean diversion of Pakistani troops from the Afghan-Pakistan border where they are required to nab the remnants of the Al-Qaeda or for launching joint operations with the U.S. in Pakistan's tribal areas.

Second, an all-out war with Pakistan will mean jeopardising the safety of the American troops and members of its security establishment who are present there in large numbers. Some of the Pakistani air bases such as Karachi, Pasni, Jacobabad and Dalbadin, where U.S. forces may be present in considerable numbers, will be legitimate targets for the IAF in case of a war.

The U.S. will obviously find the targeting of these areas unacceptable, observers say.

Third, the Indian security establishment has to factor in Pakistani nuclear weapons and their delivery systems such as missiles in case of a conflict. Hostilities with Pakistan may prove unaffordable unless India acquires some means, direct or indirect, of exercising control or immobilising the Pakistani nuclear forces.

Fourth, the Indian military machine may still require additional preparation to acquire a decisive edge over Pakistan to fight a short-duration war. For instance, the Army is still in the process of inducting the T-90 tanks from Russia that will give its armoured fleet a clear advantage.

India also may need a few more months to acquire and induct additional state-of-the-art SU-30 fighter jets into the IAF in order to launch a swift military campaign.

In the near-absence of a full-scale war option now, the armed forces may consider some action without crossing the Line of Control. In the past, India's long-range artillery has been used against Pakistani border posts.

Limited air strikes, especially on some of the training camps may be an option. But without the assurance of an effective diplomatic intervention, such a step can risk the escalation of hostilities that New Delhi, at this moment, may wish to avoid.

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