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By C. Raja Mohan
India, however, is unlikely to reconsider its military posture unless it is convinced that the signals from Pakistan are about a comprehensive effort to dismantle, irreversibly, the infrastructure of terrorism on its soil. India has heard Gen. Musharraf's words before and wants to see real action, officials here say. Nevertheless Gen. Musharraf's gambit last night has given room for the top Western officials visiting here to sketch out a road map towards military de-escalation in the next few days. They include Chris Patten, Commissioner on External Relations of the European Union, Jack Straw, British Foreign Secretary and Richard Armitage, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State. Gen. Musharraf's signal was contained in an official statement issued in Islamabad yesterday that his government will not allow Pakistan's territory to be used "for any terrorist activity anywhere in the world and no organisation in Pakistan will be allowed to indulge in terrorism in the name of Kashmir''. Indian officials are not impressed with what is essentially a reiteration of the unkept promise of Gen. Musharraf last January. Sources say that the reference in last night's statement that Pakistan occupied Kashmir is not exempt from this promise is not really new. While Gen. Musharraf's speech was vague on the question of PoK, Islamabad had conveyed through reliable channels that the "disputed territory'' was not excluded from his commitment to ending cross-border terrorism.The real significance of the statement from Pakistan last night, informed sources here say, lies in the public confirmation of a renewed private commitment from Gen. Musharraf that he will stop cross-border infiltration. This commitment has apparently been made recently under pressure from the international community. The Indian response to the latest signals from Pakistan is expected to depend on three factors. The first relates to timeframe. The sceptical Indian establishment wants a quick evidence on ending cross-border infiltration. New Delhi does not want its military options delayed and degraded by dissimulation from Gen. Musharraf. Second, India will also have to assess if the signals from Pakistan represent a strategic change. New Delhi will have to conclude that Gen. Musharraf's intentions are purely tactical, if his actions are limited to curbing infiltration, while continuing to train and finance terrorists. The world cannot expect India to revisit the issue of cross-border terrorism every six months. It needs final and permanent answers about whether Pakistan is prepared to end, once and for all, its pursuit of terrorism as conscious policy against India. Third, India does not want to find itself in a situation where Pakistan ends cross-border infiltration but indulges in intimidation of moderate political voices in Kashmir through the politics of assassination in the run-up to the elections. In short, India wants Pakistan to address all aspects of cross-border terrorism and not just one of them. The Indian decisions on both evidence and intent of the renewed Pakistani commitments on cross-border terrorism are a few days away. And its concerns have already been communicated to Western interlocutors. The stage now has been set for a diplomatic choreography in the next few days that might involve a series of steps by both India and Pakistan to move back from the nuclear brink. Diplomatic sources here say that there is absolute clarity on the proposed sequence of steps by the international community. Pakistan will have to act first to curb cross-border terrorism and India would respond with de-escalation. The reduction of Indo-Pak. tension would eventually followed by a renewed political dialogue. India and Pakistan are a long way from getting there and the threat of war has not receded. But Gen. Musharraf has made the first move. If he delivers on all aspects of cross-border terrorism, a different future might await the subcontinent.
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