The Hindu : The elusive diplomatic divident

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, May 31, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

The elusive diplomatic divident

THE MAJOR POWERS, notably the United States and the United Kingdom, seem to have opted for a plain-speak diplomacy to try and exert pressure on Pakistan to call off its sponsorship of cross-border terrorist forays into India. However, New Delhi should guard against misreading the new Anglo-American activism of this kind as a decisive dividend of India's own `coercive diplomacy' as regards Pakistan. A note of such caution flows from the overall political logic of the current diplomatic moves by the U.S. and the U.K. in respect of Pakistan. From the standpoint of the U.S.' brains trust which blueprints and manages the ongoing `globalised' campaign against terrorism, Pakistan cannot be allowed to drift towards any kind of war with India for whatever reason at this critical time. The centrality of Pakistan to America's own war-and-peace plans cannot be exaggerated as long as the fate of some top leaders of the Taliban-Al-Qaeda terror cartel remains unclear. At the same time, it is clear that the U.S. and its willing ally, the U.K., have gradually begun to appreciate India's genuine concerns about cross-border terrorism that emanates from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Pakistan's territory too. On balance, though, there is no substantively new hint that the U.S. and the U.K. may have begun to shift focus towards India as an anti-terror ally that could be more reliable than Pakistan. Islamabad's undiminished strategic relevance to the U.S. in its war against the Taliban-Al-Qaeda network and America's general aversion to any new zero-sum game at this time should, in all, indicate the reality. Although the latest Western comments seem to favour India in its current crisis concerning Pakistan, these do not necessarily translate into any kind of tilt towards New Delhi. In principle, there is also no reason why India should barter away its strategic autonomy in these circumstances.

A flurry of Anglo-American diplomatic initiatives is now gaining momentum in the context of a blunt message from the U.S. President, George W. Bush, that Pakistan must stop its terrorist incursions into India. At first glance, the stunningly candid exercise by the U.K. Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, may even appear to explore the limits of decency in public diplomacy. Without mincing words and by striking the same notes in both Islamabad and New Delhi, Mr. Straw has told the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, that he should translate his anti-terror promises into matching deeds on the ground in regard to India. With a flourish of the evocative phrase, Mr. Straw wants Gen. Musharraf to recognise that the international community has no longer any patience for terrorism in any guise or disguise and for terrorism that might be dressed up as a freedom-fight. Now, instead of gloating over such diplomatic interventions by the major powers, New Delhi should try to explore avenues of de-escalating the skyrocketing tensions that mark its collapsing relationship with Islamabad. To say this is not to miss the enormity of the challenge.

Gen. Musharraf has compounded New Delhi's task by raising the rhetoric on his side to new levels. His latest threat to unleash a storm, in the event of any move by India to cross the LoC, may not also help ease the current abnormal temperature. Now, the major powers have certainly sought to influence the thinking of the Pakistan President, although they do not appreciate New Delhi's impressionistic portrayal of Gen. Musharraf as an ostrich that would not take note of cross-border terrorism. Mr. Straw has categorically spoken about the Pakistan President's seriousness as an anti-terror leader. Closely linked to such assessments is the general belief of the major powers, including Russia and Japan, that it is for India to evaluate Pakistan in the final analysis. This leaves the war and peace issues entirely to India and Pakistan.

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