The Hindu : A blunt message to Pak.

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Jun 01, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

A blunt message to Pak.

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

The United States President, George W. Bush's tough word on Thursday is a calculated message to both Pakistan and India. To the Pakistani President, Pervez Musharraf, the unmistakable message— in words and through body language— that he has to "live up to his words'' in coming to firm grips with terrorism across the Line of Control.

Gen. Musharraf's protestations that there is "nothing'' going on across the Line of Control obviously has no takers in Bush administration, at least in the White House. "He must stop the incursions across the Line of Control,'' Mr. Bush said in a tone and message that many felt was vastly different than any time before.

"He must do so. He said he would do so. We and others are making it clear to him that he must live up to his word,'' Mr. Bush said in the presence of his top Cabinet officials.

Mr. Bush's latest blunt talking to Gen. Musharraf is also intended to show India that Washington is indeed leaning on Pakistan in spite of all that has gone on in the last eight months by way of the war on terrorism. One view is that Mr. Bush is trying to calm India, which many believe is on the verge of losing its patience.

Mr. Bush had a second indirect message to Pakistan as well— that in all the threat and rhetoric of moving out Pakistani troops from the border with Afghanistan, the United States' campaign against the Al Quaeda was not going to be diminished.

The bottomline is that while the movement of Pakistani troops away from the Afghan border would be a setback to the present operations that by itself would not be the last word on the subject. In fact, the view is that the Pakistan-Afghanistan border could and would be policed on the ground and from the air by coalition forces, British especially.

The President's announcement on Thursday that he is sending his Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to India and Pakistan has to be seen in the present seriousness of the situation and in the fact that the United States is "elevating'' its level of involvement.

According to the present scheme of things, Mr.Rumsfeld will follow the Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, who is due in India and Pakistan on June 6 and 7.

Mr. Rumsfeld's trip to the two South Asian countries also comes at a time when there has been some rather irresponsible and loose talk on resort to nuclear weapons in the case of a showdown, something that has not only merited serious attention in policy circles but also a certain amount of disbelief that nations, would even talk along these lines.

The impression is that Mr. Rumsfeld could be bringing with him the United States's assessment of what a nuclear showdown— however limited it is— could entail for both India and Pakistan.

A classified Pentagon study has said that there could be up to 12 million immediate casualties, millions injured and the after-effects lingering for quite some time.

The Defence Secretary would go no farther than say that "millions and millions'' of people would be damaged by a conflict between India and Pakistan. The Secretary of State, Colin Powell, for his part argued that the prospects of a nuclear showdown seriously couldn't be in anyone's mind. Asked if nuclear weapons would be used by India and Pakistan in the event of a showdown, Gen. Powell replied, "I can't answer that question, but I can say this: In my conversations with both sides, especially with the Pakistani side, I have made it clear that this really can't be in anyone's mind.''

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