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By C. Raja Mohan
The External Affairs Minister, Jaswant Singh, today told the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, in a telephone conversation that Gen. Musharraf's pledge is a "step forward and in the right direction.'' Pakistan's promise on cross-border infiltration to the U.S. on Thursday was conveyed to New Delhi by the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, yesterday and publicised in Washington by the Bush administration. In an official statement on the Jaswant-Powell conversation, the Ministry of External Affairs said the implementation of Gen. Musharraf's pledge "will be carefully assessed, whereafter... India will respond appropriately and positively.'' The statement is being seen here as a "marker'' that is being put down by the Government to reflect its "new receptivity'' to Gen. Musharraf's moves. India's promise to respond seems tied to an assessment of the situation on the ground. Although a formal assessment is expected to take place next week, the first reviews in the Government indicate a substantive and an unambiguous decline in cross-border infiltration in the two weeks since the speech by Gen. Musharraf. The Government is apparently in the middle of a debate on defining the nature and timing of its response to the visible decline in cross-border infiltration, which has also been acknowledged by the international community. While the sceptics point to the pitfalls of giving "too much, too early,'' others suggest that giving "too little, too late'' could result in a loss of momentum that is building behind the current international efforts to defuse the tension in the subcontinent. The willingness of Gen. Musharraf to put an end to cross-border terrorism under international pressure is being viewed here as "a significant victory'' for the coercive diplomacy pursued by India since the December 13 attack on Parliament. The largest Indian military mobilisation since Independence has succeeded in extracting pledges from Gen. Musharraf on cross-border terrorism without actual use of force, and avoiding the tremendous bloodshed that will result from a nuclear conflict. In defining its response to the latest turn of events, Indian diplomacy appears to have entered a "complex, testing end-game.'' The unfolding game of chess is about reversing more than a decade-old sponsorship of terrorism by Pakistan in Kashmir. Analysts here say that Gen. Musharraf's pledge to end cross-border infiltration is to the President of United States and the Prime Minister of Great Britain, and the full weight of the Anglo-American powers is now behind it. New Delhi's response, they add, must be designed to address the current intense international effort to avert a nuclear war in the subcontinent. It is expected to make up its mind before the U.S. Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, arrives here next week. A quick goodwill gesture, diplomatic sources here say, would help lock Gen. Musharraf in a process that could lead, step by step, towards a de-escalation of military tensions as well as an end to cross-border violence. Highly-placed Government sources here say "India will decide on the reciprocal steps and calibrate them according to our own judgment.'' These steps need to be executed with some "arithmetic precision,'' they suggest. The Government is apparently considering a "menu of options'' in responding to Gen. Musharraf. These could include diplomatic and military actions that could ease the standoff between India and Pakistan. New Delhi's ability to take early diplomatic steps appears to have been constrained by the brutal treatment meted out to the staffer at the Indian High Commission, Kulwant Singh, recently. Analysts here say that the best moves India could make at this stage would be those signalling its commitment to peace in the region, that are capable of being reversed if India arrives at an assessment that Gen. Musharraf is not living up to his pledge. And that a move to pull back some of the warships that India had massed recently in the Arabian Sea would perfectly fit the bill.
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