The Hindu : Better chance if you hit the net first

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Jun 20, 2002

Sport

Sport - Football

Better chance if you hit the net first

London June 19. England needs to score first if it is to have a realistic chance of beating Brazil in the World Cup quarterfinal, an expert in mathematics said.

England has more than a 60 per cent chance of defeating the South Americans on Friday if it hits the back of the net first, said John Haigh, Reader in Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Sussex, southern England.

However, should Brazil score first, England has only a one in seven chance of coming from behind to win, added Haigh.

The mathematician has applied Pascal's Triangle and Poisson's Distribution theory to the tournament's statistics thus far.

He said that of the 52 matches involving goals, the team scoring first has gone on to win 32 times, while on only six occasions has the trailing side come back to win. 14 of the games where a country has taken the lead has ended in draws.

Brazil came from behind against Turkey in their opening World Cup match to prevail 2-1. It won its three other encounters after taking the lead. England has taken the lead in three of its four games, winning two and drawing one.

``In most professional football we expect a team to win about two-thirds of the games in which it scores first and draws about one-fifth of them,'' said Haigh. ``And if the number of goals in the game is low then the first goal becomes very important.''

England has scored only five goals in its four matches, eight less than Brazil's 13. — AFP

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