The Hindu : 'Half a billion could die in an Indo-Pak. n-war'

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Jun 23, 2002

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'Half a billion could die in an Indo-Pak. n-war'

By Vladimir Radyuhin

MOSCOW JUNE 22. A Russian scientist claims at least half-a-billion people could die if a nuclear conflict breaks out between India and Pakistan.

Writing in the leading Russian daily, Izvestia, Prof. Yuri Malenkov of the St. Petersburg State University, dismissed as grossly underrated U. S. estimates that about 12 million people would be killed if India and Pakistan exchange limited nuclear strikes. ``Between 500 and 800 million people, and probably even more, would die in the first few weeks of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan,'' Prof. Malenkov said on the strength of secret nuclear war studies carried out in the erstwhile Soviet Union. Even if the two countries use only 5 to 10 per cent of their nuclear arsenal, the cumulative effects of the explosions and the natural and industrial calamities they will trigger off are bound "to kill at least 70 per cent of the population in both countries in the first few weeks of the conflict,'' Prof. Malenkov said.

The Russian scientist based his estimates on computer-simulated studies carried out in Russia and the United States in the 1960s and 70s. Researchers had analysed "hundreds of thousands of nuclear war scenarios'' and each time came up with the same conclusion — "it is impossible to win a nuclear conflict.''

Prof. Malenkov called on authorities in Russia and the U. S. to urgently pass on the results of their computer war games to Indian and Pakistani strategy planners, "before it is too late.'' He said political statements in Delhi and Islamabad regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons betrayed "defective scenarios drawn up by the military strategists.''

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