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By Our Science Correspondent
The oceans which surround India influence the monsoon in many ways. It is, after all, the water that evaporates from the oceans which comes down as rain. There is a complex interplay between the ocean and the atmosphere. Rainfall leads to heat taken up during evaporation being released into the atmosphere and thereby drives the winds. The winds, in turn, control evaporation and the ocean circulation. The temperature of the ocean surface determines how much water vapour is released into the atmosphere. How precisely all this is orchestrated to produce and sustain the monsoon is not well understood. Such knowledge is essential for understanding why monsoon rainfall varies so much, from region to region and from year to year. This understanding could allow better forecasting so that farmers could plan their operations accordingly as well as provide warning of extreme events such as floods or drought. Understanding monsoon variability is an important component of the Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP) launched in 1996. The Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX), the first field experiment under the ICRP, was carried out in mid-1999. Apart from its scientific achievements, the experiment successfully demonstrated the capability to bring together different organisations and academic institutions. ARMEX, too, will be a multi-institutional effort. The first phase of ARMEX will study the intense rainfall events which occur on the western coast during the monsoon. Parts of coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa can receive an average of 250 cm of monsoon rain. During the monsoon season, the rainfall fluctuates between spells of very heavy rain and little or no rain. About 60 per cent of the intense rainfall events are associated with the Tropical Convergence Zone, which appears as a well-marked band of clouds stretching across India and even beyond. Heavy rain can also occur as a result of smaller offshore weather systems. In both cases, what happens in the Bay of Bengal may be strongly influencing events on the western coast. ARMEX will attempt to elucidate the nature of the systems responsible for the exceptionally heavy rainfall. The second phase of ARMEX, scheduled for next year, will explore what is known as the "Arabian Sea warm pool'', near Lakshadweep. A "warm pool'' is the region of the ocean where the sea surface temperature (SST) is more than 28 degrees C.
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