The Hindu : Towards de-escalation

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Jun 26, 2002

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Towards de-escalation

THE DISCERNIBLE SIGNS of new stability along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir underline a political message of hope. India should seize this qualitative opportunity and take more salutary steps than before to de-escalate the abnormal tensions in its relationship with Pakistan. Apparently cognisant of the new possibilities, the Defence Minister, George Fernandes, has remained upbeat in recent days about the perceptible indicators that Pakistan has taken some positive action towards curbing the endemic terrorist incursions into India across the LoC. At another significant level, the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, has in fact reaffirmed that he stands by the commitment which he made to the United States on June 6 about his intention to stop the incessant terrorist infiltration into India and to take the necessary measures as a matter of permanent policy. Gen. Musharraf has clearly sought to set the record straight in the specific context of the latest queries that the U.S. administration has put across to him following his interviews to some American news journals. By reassuring the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, Gen. Musharraf has now dispelled the impressionistic view that he might be disinclined to sustain his anti-terror pledge in regard to India as a long-term policy. It is also evident, on the other hand, that the latest definitive statement by Mr. Fernandes nullifies some remarks to the contrary in India itself.

The substance of the Defence Minister's relevant statement is indicative of a certain degree of professional assessment by New Delhi about Pakistan's anti-terror commitment. Mr. Fernandes is reported to have said categorically that "infiltration, at the moment, has stopped, and this is the position on the ground" across the LoC. Two significant aspects of this evaluation underscore its credibility as a professional exercise. First, India's military corps commanders themselves have informed the Minister of their finding which was based on a monitoring of the LoC. Second, Mr. Fernandes has hinted that the present signs of a stabilising situation along the LoC should be seen separately from the parallel conclusion that India still faces a definitive security threat from the terrorists already inside Jammu and Kashmir. These militants, estimated to number around 3000, had sneaked into Jammu and Kashmir from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir before Gen. Musharraf launched a crackdown against the `jehadi' terrorists and their training camps within his country.

A logical question in this overall context is why New Delhi should seem hesitant to travel the extra mile on the path of de-escalation. A view from Islamabad is that Gen. Musharraf's challenges are compounded by New Delhi's political calculation that the pressure which the U.S. is able and willing to exert on Pakistan — as regards the transnational `jehadi' issue — might be India's best bet to make some strategic gains with reference to its neighbour. New Delhi cannot, however, afford to overlook the economic and political costs of a prolonged confrontation with Pakistan in the evolving context of America's incremental activism as the sole superpower and also as the potential "facilitator" of a peace process concerning India and Pakistan. The U.S. and the other major powers have not yet abandoned their own brand of coercive diplomacy as applied to both India and Pakistan in the sub-text of their recent slide along a collision course towards war. What cannot be ignored are the likely economic consequences of the advisories by some influential countries to their own citizens against travel to India and Pakistan. Now, even if India's interests are considered compatible with those of the U.S. in one or more critical areas, New Delhi will be well advised to apply the litmus test of strategic autonomy while dealing with issues concerning Pakistan. Imaginative de-escalatory steps and a renewed dialogue with Pakistan on all issues, including confidence-building measures regarding nuclear security matters, are called for.

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