The Hindu : BJP gains, Gujarat loses

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Jul 07, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

BJP gains, Gujarat loses

Narendra Modi has `served' his party well, writes Manas Dasgupta.

THE GUJARAT Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, has brought the BJP back from near oblivion in the State to a position of `strength' from where it can hope to return to power. He has `served' his party well.

Doubts are being raised whether the communal card Mr. Modi chose to play will take the BJP past the post, but there is no doubt it will no more be a cakewalk for the Congress as it seemed before the carnage unleashed post-Godhra.

It had been a continuous downslide for the BJP in its fortress since September 2000, in both the urban and rural areas. It lost 23 of the 25 district panchayats, about 180 of the 225 taluk panchayats and two of the six municipal corporations which had been under its control for the last five to 24 years, and then almost all the parliamentary and Assembly byelections. Even a change of guard could not change the party's fortunes — four days before Godhra the BJP lost two of the three Assembly byelections barely managing to win the Chief Minister's seat in Rajkot-II. It was no wishful thinking of the political pundits that the Congress was all set to romp home with a massive majority in the March 2003 Assembly elections.

The post-Godhra communal carnage changed all that. The minority-bashing caused an unprecedented polarisation of votes on communal lines creating a frenzied pro-BJP sentiment both in urban and rural centres. A random poll survey carried out at the behest of a Central Minister in mid-May gave the BJP 152 seats in the 182-member Assembly but with a rider that with the passage of time, the number might start falling as the communal antipathy lessened.

Mr. Modi was naturally keen on dissolving the Assembly and going for elections by June. But he was advised to go slow, first because the Centre was not prepared to accept the gamble before the presidential elections and, second, no one was sure whether the Election Commission would agree to hold the polls in the communally-surcharged atmosphere.

With early elections now in doubt, even party insiders are wary about the BJP's prospects. The demand for Mr. Modi's removal was not only raised from outside the party, it also came from within as many of the leaders believed that the Chief Minister had outlived his utility and his presence was hurting the BJP's image.

His stubborn nature and `larger-than-the party' image have created many enemies both in his Cabinet and in the party. The list of his detractors reads like a who's who and it was because of this that many leaders in the party felt happy that the former Chief Minister, Keshubhai Patel, refused to move to the Centre. His minor omissions forgiven, Mr. Patel has emerged as the rallying point in the State BJP unit for the anti-Modi forces. Whether Mr. Patel will be able to stage a comeback as Chief Minister is doubtful, but he is looked up to in the party as the only leader who can still challenge the might of Mr. Modi.

The communal card may fetch some votes for the BJP in the major urban centres of Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Bhavnagar and the rural areas in central and parts of north Gujarat, but the Kutch-Saurashtra and the south Gujarat regions, which were not affected by the communal carnage, may not feel its impact. The prolonged disturbances, the state's direct and indirect support to the inhuman treatment meted out to the minorities and closure of trade and commercial activities for nearly four months have also considerably diluted the communal sentiment even in the sensitive areas.

But the communal card alone cannot take a party through in an election unless it plays its caste card correctly in the rural areas. But the chips are down for the BJP this time. The ouster of Mr. Patel has disappointed the sizable number of "Patel" voters while Shankarsinh Waghela may have taken away the Kshatriya votes with him to the Congress. The incumbency factor, both at the Centre and in the State, the growing problems of unemployment and poverty, shortage of water and power and such other day-to-day problems coupled with yet another bad monsoon, which seems probable at this stage, are also certain to take their toll on the BJP. The party's plan to spread the communal message in the hitherto unaffected areas through its "Gaurav Rath Yatra" has also gone awry — it was forced to cancel the plans at the behest of the Centre.

But the situation is none too rosy for the Congress either. The communal carnage has shown that the Sangh Parivar through slow poisonous indoctrination and lure of money and political power has made serious inroads into the hitherto Congress vote bank of Dalits and Adivasis. It was in a bid to counter this that the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, chose to open her election campaign in the State from the Adivasi-dominated Limkheda constituency in Panchamahals district last month.

In the absence of a third force, and there is no sign of any rising on the horizon till poll time, the BJP's loss will be the Congress' gain. BJP insiders believe the party may get about 100 seats if the elections are held by October but may fall short of the magic figure of 92 if polling is held in February.

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