Opinion - Editorials   

Preparing for a drought

THERE ARE SIGNS that the 2002 monsoon is reviving, but it is better to prepare now for the worst than to wait and organise contingency plans only if it is known for sure that precipitation will be far less than normal in most States. Even if the monsoon were to return with considerable force, the kharif crop in a number of regions will be badly affected. Sowing operations have not been completed in most regions and where they have been, a prolonged dry spell, especially in north and peninsular India, has caused the seedlings to wither. The challenge now is two-fold: to rescue the kharif crop in regions where the monsoon may revive and to prepare for a difficult year in regions where a severe drought may mark the rest of the year.

It was inevitable that sooner or later the country's extraordinary run of good fortune with the monsoon, stretching back to 1988, would come to an end. While the official forecast was of a normal monsoon in 2002 as well, the very tenuous scientific basis of these predictions always held out the possibility that at some point they would be proven wrong. Until now, the monsoon has been deficient in 20 of the 36 meteorological zones and it has been normal in only 37 per cent of the districts. Other than in a handful of States — Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra and West Bengal — the precipitation has by and large been inadequate in the rest of the country. The situation is particularly serious in the granaries of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, in parts of which the monsoon has not even set in more than a fortnight after the normal date. In the event that the monsoon does pick up momentum, the State and Central Governments will have to make available seed for short-duration varieties so that the best can be made of a shortened crop cycle. The more difficult task in the event of a widespread drought is to keep the wheels of the rural economy moving in spite of a crop failure. This may turn out to be the first such challenge since 1987, and the more difficult years of 1979 and 1982. Fortunately, two economic resources traditionally in short supply during drought years are now available in abundance: stocks of grain and reserves of foreign exchange. Stocks of over 60 million tonnes of rice and wheat will be sufficient to make up for production shortfalls and to meet increased demand for grain supplied through the public distribution system. The $58 billion of reserves are more than adequate for any large-scale import that may be necessary of food commodities other than the two cereals. As a consequence, inflation, the other spectre that usually accompanies a nationwide drought, should not run out of control. Covering a deficit in production is much the easier part, work opportunities will have to be created to make up for the loss of employment among farm labourers and small farmers that will follow a severe drought. Here again, the surplus stocks of grain will have to be combined with substantially enlarged public expenditure to sustain Government employment relief programmes. Since a number of States have not been covered by crop insurance, a drought will cause considerable income losses to farmers who will have to be compensated through other avenues.

All this will require considerable planning and speed in execution if the effects of a drought are to be contained. That is possible if the State and Central Governments look ahead immediately, in spite of the uncertainty about how the monsoon will develop in the next six weeks. The Agriculture Ministry has already announced the preparation of contingency plans in case the monsoon does not revive. But this is only one aspect of a much larger plan that will have to be executed if the 2002 monsoon does in fact fail in large parts of the country. A successful negotiation of the fallout of a drought will require economic management of the highest order.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Opinion

News: Front Page | National | Southern States | Other States | International | Opinion | Business | Sport | Miscellaneous |
Advts: Classifieds | Employment | Obituary |

Stories in this Section

• Not an uplifting choice
• Preparing for a drought
• Censorship in the nuclear age
• The G-8 summit and beyond
• Trade, the dividing factor here
• Indefensible decision
• Neglected regions
• Bill's main failure
• Teachers & unions
• No commitment
• In poor taste
• Helping small investors

Copyright © 2002, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu