The Hindu : A challenge to the diplomatic apparatus

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Jul 26, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

A challenge to the diplomatic apparatus

By Kesava Menon

Reports of increasing friction between the Afghanistan President, Hamid Karzai, and his Defence Minister, Mohammed Fahim, could throw up a tough challenge to India's diplomatic and intelligence gathering apparatus. These reports initially appeared in the U.S. media and do thereby invite a measure of scepticism given the Bush Administration's special agenda vis-a-vis Afghanistan. Nevertheless, they do contain sufficient substance to warrant close scrutiny.

Although the reports have not brought out the labyrinthine methodologies of governance set in place by Mr. Karzai and the conglomerate of conflicting interests that serves as Afghanistan's Cabinet, their gist is that Mr. Fahim has got control of a huge, corrupt and politically committed intelligence apparatus. This network of spooks and strong-arm men is apparently a carryover from the days of the Soviet-style government of Najibullah, which retained its clout through the Taliban era by shifting its loyalties from one set of ideologues to another. Mr. Fahim was apparently a cog in this machinery till he left Kabul with Commander Ahmed Shah Masood. Now that Mr. Fahim has re-emerged as a key figure in the Afghan capital, courtesy his leadership of the Northern Alliance forces, he has apparently re-established control of the network that was once known by its acronym Khad but is now called the Amaniyat.

The reports do not provide details of how Mr. Fahim, as Defence Minister, has taken control of the intelligence apparatus. Till the new Cabinet was installed following the loya jirga, the Interior Ministry was headed by Yusuf Qanooni who, like Mr. Fahim, is a Tajik from the Panjshir Valley and Masood loyalist. Mr. Fahim and Mr. Qanooni together with the Foreign Minister, Abdullah Abdullah, formed the Panjshiri troika, which entered Kabul as the most powerful faction following the overthrow of the Taliban. Mr. Qanooni has since given up the Interior portfolio but taken a new position as security adviser to the President and is apparently contemplating floating a new political party. This apparently tactical measure aside, the solidarity among Masood's boys seems to be as strong as it ever was and Mr. Fahim as Masood's designated successor seems comfortably ensconced in his role as leader of the Panjshiris. The official head of the Amaniyat, or the National Security Directorate, is reportedly Mohammed Aref who was once Masood's intelligence chief.

According to U.S. media reports, Panjshiri Tajiks head all the 23 divisions of the Amaniyat, which has grown into a huge force of 30,000 personnel. Other intelligence services, including those which function under the new Interior Minister, are said to be minuscule in comparison.

Following the example of the Khad and other Soviet era intelligence-cum-strong arm establishments the Amaniyat apparently considers no area of Afghan life, including the "political loyalties" of Afghan citizens, beyond the purview of its scrutiny. In a bid to curb the power of the Amaniyat, Mr. Karzai has appointed a commission to review its functioning and to specifically probe into the excesses alleged to have been committed by it. The reports also mention that it was Mr. Karzai's concern over the power of the Amaniyat and its loyalty to Mr. Fahim that prompted the Afghan President to ask the U.S. to replace his Afghan guards (who are also loyal to Mr. Fahim) with American military personnel.

The Bush administration has invested so heavily in Hamid Karzai that it is not likely to take kindly to developments that undermine his position.

At the same time it has shown that it is willing to live with Soviet era dictatorships and their intelligence establishments all over Central Asia and therefore it might not have any objections in principle to Mr. Fahim building a state-within-a-state.

The emerging situation is one that the U.S. officials on the spot and their superiors will have to learn to manage. But the situation also throws up some tough questions for India's diplomatic and security establishment.

India has invested so heavily in Mr. Fahim and the Northern Alliance that there is bound to be a loss of influence and prestige if the country's closest allies within the Afghan dispensation are to be sidelined or ousted.

The management of the emerging contradictions in Afghanistan will probably require a reinvestment of diplomatic efforts to levels equivalent to what was expended up to the holding of the loya jirga.

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