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By K. K. Katyal
Based in Brussels, the organisation works closely with governments and those who influence them, including the media, to highlight its crisis analysis and to generate support for its policy prescriptions. The report, titled "Kashmir: Confrontation and Miscalculation'', concentrates on immediate measures needed to cool off the situation and create space for a concerted political and diplomatic effort by India and Pakistan and by "a concerned international community to resolve the crisis definitively''. As for the long-term problem, it says that militancy in Kashmir and the subsequent heightened risk of an India-Pakistan war will not end unless many things are done including restoration of genuine democracy in Pakistan and steps by New Delhi to grant political autonomy to Kashmiris, improve their well-being, and end all human right abuses by its security forces. The report divides its recommendations into four categories. First, it calls upon the Pakistan Government "to follow through rigorously on President Musharraf's commitment to end all support for cross-border militants and to close any training camps for such individuals in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.'' Two, the Indian Government is urged to "closely monitor and control the activities of security forces in Jammu and Kashmir'' and to "reconsider its long-standing objection to deploying monitors on the Indian side of the Line of Control, who could help observe movements across it.'' Three, a twofold job is prescribed for the international community, in particular for the Governments of the U.S., the U.K., the European Union and the U.N. Security Council on the following lines: a) to apply, on a continuing basis, broad diplomatic pressure on both sides that is necessary to initiate and advance a bilateral diplomatic process to wind down the immediate crisis and move towards a permanent solution, and b) to sustain a commitment to democratic transition in Pakistan that would pay major dividends by marginalising Islamic extremists and enhancing prospects for India-Pakistan peace, in the first instance, by urging the President, Pervez Musharraf, to allow the October election to lead to a genuine realignment of power. Four, the U.S. Government is required "to urge India to reopen diplomatic and military channels of communication with Pakistan in order to scale back tensions''. Also, it should participate, if India agrees to drop its objection to an international presence in Kashmir, in helicopter-borne monitoring of the Line of Control and otherwise share with both India and Pakistan surveillance information on insurgent movements as well as on Indian and Pakistani military activities. Noting that the FBI and other US intelligence agencies are already tracking Al-Qaeda operatives in Pakistan, the report suggests that these outfits "can help determine whether Pakistan has dismantled terrorist networks, shut down militant bases and eliminated training camps. Given the close links between Pakistani Islamic extremists and Al-Qaeda, it is, in any case, in the U.S. interest to expand the scope of its intelligence operations in Pakistan. Gen. Musharraf has been willing to allow the U.S. to operate within Pakistan in high-profile cases involving Western targets. If he really intends to contain and eliminate Islamic militancy, it stands to reason that he should have no objection to doing so in the context of the militants.'' As for the domestic dynamics in Pakistan, the report refers to the blows to Gen. Musharraf's credibility after the rigged referendum and says: "If the October elections do not lead to a realignment of power and authority in Pakistan, the military, operating without civilian oversight, could revert to the adventurism that has bedevilled India-Pakistan relations. A democratic government, however, would be more inclined to mend fences with India, provided it is genuinely in control of the State apparatus.''
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