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News Analysis
By C. Raja Mohan
After an extraordinary bonhomie in the first months of the Bush administration, Indo-U.S. relations seem to have hit a political plateau. President Bush's intent to elevate the relations with India to a strategic level was matched by India's own enthusiastic support to the controversial American initiative on missile defences. India and the U.S. appeared on the verge of an unprecedented convergence of worldviews. The Bush Administration's decisions to lift the nuclear sanctions imposed on India after May 1998 without any conditions, the acceleration of cooperation on counter-terrorism and the resumption of arms sales to India seemed to expand the basis of Indo-U.S. engagement. The events of September 11, however, have introduced new complexities into Indo-U.S. relations. India, which eagerly supported the American war on terrorism, found the U.S. moving towards a renewed partnership with Pakistan. The Bush Administration has, indeed, worked hard to limit the fallout from the rediscovery of Pakistan on the relationship with India. And after the attack on Parliament on December 13, the U.S. has pressed Pervez Musharraf to end cross-border terrorism against India. The jury is out on the results from American nudging of Pakistan, but there is no question that the nature of the U.S. policy towards Indo-Pak. relations and the Kashmir question has begun to alter visibly. But if the triangular diplomacy begins to overshadow Indo-U.S. ties and there is no further expansion of bilateral cooperation, the bureaucracies in both the capitals are likely to resume the old habits of mutual suspicion or neglect. Preventing the return to old ways in Indo-U.S. relations must be at the top of Mr. Armitage's mission to New Delhi. Three areas of bilateral cooperation require some immediate political attention. First, India and the U.S. need to build on the emerging convergence of interests in promoting South Asian stability. Both in Sri Lanka and Nepal, they have similar objectives-in defeating the forces of extremism and promoting peace. But as the Bush Administration steps up its involvement in the internal conflicts of India's smaller neighbours, it is important that there is more intensive consultation and coordination between New Delhi and Washington in the management of South Asian security. During the Armitage visit the two sides must explore ways to deepen bilateral cooperation on South Asian security. Second, there is an urgent need for greater interaction between the two sides on issues relating to war and peace in the Persian Gulf. As the United States prepares for another round of conflict in the Gulf, it needs to take into account the many concerns that India has. New Delhi's energy imports from the Gulf have dramatically increased in the last decade and so has the size of Indian expatriate labour in the region. Talk about Indo-U.S. strategic cooperation is meaningless if there are no consultations on their vital national security interests that converge in the Gulf. Defining a framework for bilateral discussions on energy security and political stability in the Gulf has become an immediate necessity. Finally, the worm of non-proliferation is beginning to turn again and has the potential to poison Indo-U.S. relations. The U.S. restrictions on technology transfers remain and the habit of describing India as a non-proliferation concern has begun to resurface in Washington. Even more galling for India is the fact that while New Delhi has supported the Bush initiative on missile defences, there is a growing chorus in Washington that the U.S. must stop Israel from transferring defensive technologies to India. If New Delhi and Washington do not quickly settle the outstanding differences on the nuclear issue, it will return to haunt their bilateral relations.
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