The Hindu : Leadership changes in Beijing

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Aug 24, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Leadership changes in Beijing

By C. Raja Mohan

BEIJING Aug. 23. Besides an endorsement of the Chinese President, Jiang Zemin's ideas on how to retain the political vitality of the Communist Party of China, the upcoming 16th Congress is also likely to overhaul the leadership in the Party and Government. Until recently it was widely assumed that Mr. Jiang will step down from his three posts as President, Party Chief and head of the Central Military Commission.

The current Vice-President, Hu Jintao, was seen as the designated successor to Mr. Jiang. The rules say no one can serve more than two terms in the leading organs of the State, which Mr. Jiang has. But there has been some betting in the Western press that Mr. Jiang might hold on to some of his powers after the Party Congress.

Few here can assert with authority on how the finessing of rules and political jugglery will unfold in the coming weeks. This Party Congress was to have seen the retirement of the third generation of Chinese leaders — of which Mr. Jiang was considered to be at the core. Any attempt to accommodate one of them in the future power structures without finding place for the others could indeed be complicated. Acknowledgement of Mr. Jiang's theoretical contribution, in the form of "Three Represents'', could indeed be one way of elevating him above the others of his generation.

In an important speech last year, Mr. Jiang had proclaimed that the CPC must represent the new forces of production, advanced culture, and the broad masses of society. Officials here, of course, dismiss all speculation on leadership change. The 16th Party congress, originally said to have been slated for September, is now likely to be held only towards the end of the year. Three months is a long time in politics, even in China.

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The "two-term'' rule has been one of the important feaures of China's political modernisation under Deng Xiaoping. This Constitutional norm for positions in the top levels of the State organs has helped bring in a whole new generation of younger leaders to the top.

Today, China is consciously trying to promote those born in the 1950s to top leadership positions and those born in the 1960s to the level of second rung in the leading organs of the Government. Most of the new generation Chinese leaders are well-educated and have at least university degrees.

Deng's efforts to groom the younger generation has led to the rise of leaders like Mr. Hu. Mr. Hu will represent the fourth generation of Chinese leaders to run the nation after the communist revolution in 1949.

The fourth generation is likely to see increasing number of managers in leadership positions. The first and second generation leaders were born out of revolutionary struggle.

The third were mostly technocrats trained in the Soviet Union in the 1950s. Mr. Jiang for example is an engineer. While Mr. Hu is an engineer by education many of his colleagues are managers and administrators.

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Whether China tinkers with the two-term rule for political leaders or not, India might learn something useful from this principle. Old and tired men rule an India that is teeming with young people. Term limits could be one way of retiring senior politicians in India and make way for the young.

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Additional rooms are being added to the mausoleum of Mao Zedong that stands in the Tiananmen Sqaure at the heart of Beijing. These rooms are expected to display the busts of other Chinese leaders whose contributions are acknowledged by the Party.

These figures include the former Premier Zhou Enlai, the man who built the People's Liberation Army, Zhu De, the former President of China, Li Shaoqi who was disgraded during the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s, and of course, Deng Xiaoping, who has brought modernity and prosperity to China within one generation.

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