The Hindu : India and the U.S. war on Iraq

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Sep 09, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

India and the U.S. war on Iraq

By C. Raja Mohan

As the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, heads for New York to join the commemoration of the September 11 tragedy, the American war against terrorism is about to enter a more divisive phase. While the war in Afghanistan against the Al-Qaeda remains incomplete, a second front is about to be unveiled in the Persian Gulf.

As an embattled United States President, George W. Bush, seeks to mobilise international support for his imminent war to oust the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Gulf security is likely to figure prominently in his conversation with Mr. Vajpayee on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly Session next week.

The American objective underlying the new effort to oust Saddam Hussein is a bold one — the restructuring of the political order in the Gulf and West Asia. The ideologues of the Bush administration have convinced themselves that pushing the region towards political modernisation might be the key to the long-term victory over extremism and its ideological sources.

It is now a question of when and how, not whether, the Bush administration launches military operations to oust the Saddam Hussein regime. It is also evident that the international criticism of Washington's approach to Iraq is unlikely to deter the United States from pursuing its objectives in the Persian Gulf.

The British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, has signed on to the project, despite deep reservations in his own party. It is a matter of time before other Europeans fall in line, if only kicking and screaming. The Russians are engaged in hard bargaining with the Bush Administration to extract the right price before they agree to back the U.S. on Iraq. The Chinese will make some noises but have no desire to oppose the U.S. actions in the Gulf.

Within the Arab world, the private positions of the Governments are vastly different from the collectively stated opposition to the attack on Saddam Hussein. The Arab concerns are more about the credibility of the American options. With assurances from Washington that the operation against Saddam Hussein will not involve a prolonged bombing of civilian targets, many Arab states might be prepared to hold their nose. Washington is also aware of the widespread anti-American sentiment in the region but is betting, on the basis of past record, that the sullenness on the Arab street will not explode into popular protests.

While India will be comfortable with the long-term project for the political modernisation of West Asia, it would clearly want some assurances from the American side that its actions against Iraq do not exacerbate the threats of extremism and terrorism in the short term.

India also has some immediate concerns about the safety of the citizens in the Gulf and the danger of a massive rise in oil prices. New Delhi appears better placed today than in 1991 to cope with these threats. The last Gulf war involved the liberation of Kuwait from Iraqi occupation and the massive effort to evacuate the Indian citizens in Kuwait.

This time the war is likely to be fought on Iraqi territory where there are hardly any Indian citizens. The weight of the Gulf oil in international markets has considerably declined since the early 1990s. While there will be some rise in oil prices, the U.S. is in a position to effectively control it. Russia, which is pumping oil in quantities that match those from Saudi Arabia, has lent a new stability to energy markets.

The real Indian interests in the Gulf are deeper. New Delhi has a strong stake in ending the isolation and misery of the Iraqi people who have suffered the most under the sanctions regime. India stands in favour of preserving the unity and territorial integrity of Iraq and has always valued the secular impulses of the Iraqi nation.

An early end to the current stalemate in Iraq and reintegration of this great nation into the international mainstream is in India's interest. For, it will bring Iraq's oil onto the market, allow New Delhi to develop equity oil in Iraqi fields, and participate in the massive reconstruction of the nation. A secular, modern and globalising Iraq, content in its own borders, will be a force for peace and stability in the region.

As India thinks about its own interests in the Gulf amidst the American preparations for war in the region, there are two big questions. Is Washington prepared to accommodate New Delhi's interests in its Gulf policy? Can New Delhi and Washington find ways to work together in a region of vital interest to both?

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