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Muting the war drums

THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION'S efforts to line up the global community behind a harsh policy in respect of Iraq has run into rough weather with three of the other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — France, Russia and China — withholding their endorsement. Washington only reluctantly acquiesced in the otherwise near-unanimous demand for a multilateral approach by allowing the issue to be taken before the Security Council. But while multilateralism is being followed in form, the unilateralist approach is still evident in the U.S. efforts to shape the content of the reinforced demands that it is asking the Security Council to make on Iraq. While the United Kingdom has signed onto the U.S. agenda unconditionally, the other three permanent members of the Security Council have refused to endorse Washington's judgment that a change of regime in Baghdad is an urgent need and that Iraq's non-compliance with its obligations to rid itself of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capability provides the justification and the route by which the regime change can be wrought. The U.S. administration, which has run into difficulties in getting Congress to support its policy, has sent emissaries to Paris and Moscow to try and bring around the leaderships in these two countries. However, the dissenting threesome have launched efforts to ensure that the demands the Security Council will make on Iraq are more limited in scope. It is not, however, certain that they will continue to resist U.S. pressure especially if Washington decides to treat them in the same manner as it is treating Germany. Washington has made clear its displeasure with the German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, whose victory in the recent elections was attributed at least in part to the critical posture he took in respect of U.S. policy towards Iraq. The rest of the world is watching with concern if these three powers can restrain Washington's urge to rush into battle without adequate thought and with what appear to be contrived justifications.

In its efforts to shape the outcome of the Security Council debate, Washington has drafted a three-tiered set of propositions that it wants endorsed. These include a finding that Iraq is guilty of non-compliance with earlier resolutions, a demand that Iraq unconditionally and unquestioningly readmit weapons inspectors and a declaration that the international community will act militarily if necessary (and with no further debate) if Baghdad falters in its compliance with the inspections and the weapons dismantling processes. France, articulating the alternative and probably majority view, has conceded after initial resistance that a fresh Security Council resolution might be in order but only one which stipulates that inspectors must have unrestricted access. Iraq's cooperation with the weapons inspectors is a separate matter and if there is any default on Baghdad's part the Security Council must hold further deliberations on the measures that must then be taken.

As the French Foreign Minister, Dominique de Villepin, has pointed out, there is a serious need to ensure that people elsewhere, especially in the Arab world, do not form the impression that there is a hidden agenda. In this context, the U.S. President George W. Bush, would have been better advised to not refer to the attempt on his father's life almost a decade ago, allegedly by Iraqi agents, by way of justifying his current Iraq policy. As it is, the Arab world has a very strong and negative view of the role that the U.S. is playing in the region and is extremely concerned, and rightly so, about the lack of sensitivity with which Washington pursues its interests in the area. Washington undoubtedly has the power to influence changes around the world but the rest of the global community has to be on guard to restrain the U.S. from promoting its partisan agenda without concern for those who will be most directly affected.

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