Front Page   

Pro-Taliban coalition forges ahead in Pak. polls

By B. Muralidhar Reddy

ISLAMABAD Oct. 11. A day after the elections to the National Assembly and four provincial assemblies in Pakistan, the only thing certain is the spectre of uncertainty. With no single party or combination of parties in a position to command a simple majority in the 272-member National Assembly and a six-party alliance of religious parties poised to capture two sensitive provinces bordering Afghanistan, the establishment, mainstream parties and the civil society of Pakistan are severely jolted.

It was characterised as one of the most contentious election in the history of Pakistan but no one had anticipated the nature of complications the election could trigger at the national and provincial levels.

With the emergence of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an alliance of right-wing religious parties, as a `third force', Pakistan's neatly stitched coalition with the United States in its `war against terror' faces a threat.

The MMA has won 40 seats in the National Assembly, compared to just two for its member parties in the 1997 elections. As the counting progresses at a painfully slow pace, the race for the slot of the single largest party in the National Assembly is between the People's Party led by the former Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto, and the rebel Muslim Leaguers, considered to be the favourites of the military establishment.

However, both the parties would be way behind the 136 mark needed for a simple majority in the National Assembly. As things stand, together they may just manage to cross the halfway mark. And even if they succeed, it would be a gigantic task for them to arrive at a mutually acceptable power sharing formula.

Perhaps, it would hinge on the results in the Punjab province, the largest in the country, accounting for over half of the National Assembly seats. The Muslim League, led by another former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, is expected to end up a poor third in the province and fourth at the national level.

Such has been the spectacular victory of the MMA, particularly in the North West Frontier Province and Baluchistan, bordering Afghanistan, that it has caught the political and diplomatic observers by surprise. The greater cause for worry lies in the explanation that it is the prevailing `anti-American sentiment' that paved the way for its victory.

Undoubtedly, the biggest dilemma of the Musharraf regime in the coming days would be on how it would deal with the MMA. The question that would haunt the establishment is whether or not to keep the MMA out of the National Government as the religious combine would be in-charge of the two sensitive provinces where the war against terrorism is being fought against the remnants of the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

The People's Party has fared comparatively better in the Sindh province but it may have to look for allies to command a simple majority in the provincial assembly. The Muttahida Quami Movement could be a formidable ally, but the gulf between the People's Party and the MQM is so wide that it may not be practicable.

There were hints from the Musharraf regime that it would like to see the rebel Muslim Leaguers in command at the national level.

This was evident when the Information Minister, Nisar Menon, talked about the right of the single largest party to head the government.

The People's Party leader, Benazir Bhutto, gave enough indication from London that the doors of her party were `open' for any kind of adjustments for government formation.

However, it is highly unlikely that the MMA could be a potential ally of her party given her strong views against the religious parties.

Independent and regional parties were likely to rally behind the PML (QA) — dubbed the "King's party'' for its support to Gen. Musharraf — in its efforts to form a coalition government.

However, that won't help it reach the magical figure of 136 and as things stand, Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif, both barred from contesting the polls, are not yet ready to forget and forgive Gen. Musharraf.

He had promised to restore civilian rule by early November, though he would continue to enjoy supreme powers, thanks to constitutional changes introduced before the vote. It is indeed a messy situation.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Front Page

News: Front Page | National | Southern States | Other States | International | Opinion | Business | Sport | Miscellaneous |
Advts: Classifieds | Employment | Obituary |

Stories in this Section

• Pro-Taliban coalition forges ahead in Pak. polls
• Benazir offer
• Cong. focus on getting enough MLAs in J&K
• Six Independents with us, says Azad
• Peace Nobel for Carter
• PM wants more pressure on Pak.
• Paes-Bhupathi combine magic works
• SC notice to Krishna
• U.P. Cabinet expanded
• 4 killed

Copyright © 2002, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu