Monday, Oct 14, 2002
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By Qamar Agha
THE RELATIONS between America and Saudi Arabia have now come under more strain than at any time since 1973 when the late King Faisal imposed an oil embargo on the U.S. for supporting Israel in its war against the Arabs. Differences are again widening on the new American policy in West Asia. The American administration feels the Saudis are not fully cooperating in its war against terrorism. The Saudis did not allow U.S. airplanes to use facilities in the Kingdom for raids against Afghanistan and they are now urging the Bush administration not to go in for a change of regime in Iraq. The Americans are upset. In fact, several top officials within the U.S. administration as well as in Congress endorse the Rand Corporation's analysis, which suggested that "Saudi Arabia should be treated as an enemy". The study accused the Kingdom of being a prime supporter of terrorism and instability in West Asia and said it should be issued an ultimatum to stop support for terrorism or face seizure of its oilfields. However, the U.S. Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, insisted that this was not the "dominant opinion" within the administration. Ever since Crown Prince Abdullah became the de facto ruler, differences between the two Cold War allies are widening. Prince Abdullah is a pragmatic ruler who is widely respected in the Islamic nations for his support to the Palestinian cause. He is of the view that the George W. Bush administration no longer maintains neutrality in the Arab-Israeli conflict and that it has aligned itself with Israel. Differences also persist on Iraq and Iran. Mr. Bush has labelled both the nations part of an "axis-of-evil", therefore, demanding a change in their regimes. The Saudi policy is to mend fences with its two neighbours. Saudi-U.S. ties further worsened when Prince Abdullah initiated the move to bring Iraq back into the Arab fold on condition that Baghdad would implement all the U.N. resolutions concerning the Gulf War. The Saudi leader thought that it would satisfy the Americans and help avert a U.S. military confrontation with Iraq. The Saudis believe a war in Iraq will destabilise the whole region. The Saudi-American alliance was, in fact, based on a mutual understanding that provided Riyadh security from its powerful neighbours and assured the U.S. a reliable supply of oil at an agreed price. The arrangement worked for over three decades. Saudis pumped the oil as well as the money which they earned to the U.S. The sharp increase in oil prices in the 1970s and early 1980s and the limited absorption capacity created a large surplus of finances in both the Government as well as the private sector of the Saudi economy. These vast assets were mainly invested in financial institutions and Government securities of the U.S. Such investment by private Saudi players alone is estimated to be between $500 billions and $700 billions. The Saudi Government's investments are not known. After September 11, everything has changed and the U.S. does not find much in common with Saudi Arabia. A regime change in Iraq could reduce American dependence on Saudi Arabian oil supplies. Oil prices could also halve — the Saudi policy is to maintain oil prices between $20 and $25 a barrel which they believe to be neither "too high" nor "too low". The U.S. has criticised Saudi Arabia for raising oil prices. The U.S. believes that "the war on terrorism will be won only when there are changes not only in the regimes but also in the political and social culture of the West Asian countries". Therefore, it is not only demanding regime changes in Iraq and Iran but also putting pressure on the Saudis to root out the terrorists in their midst and open up their system. It means the House of Saud should also introduce liberal Islamic values and find new partners in power — something that is difficult for the conservative Wahabi Saudi rulers. The Bush administration is increasingly of the view that Islamic militancy cannot be contained unless and until its source is tapped in Saudi Arabia where religious leaders continue to pursue their own agenda with the help of militant organisations. The U.S. believes that Islamic fundamentalists enjoy the support of not only Saudi citizens but also of members of the royal family who give them generous donations. Therefore, it wants the total collapse of the existing Islamic set-up controlled by the Wahabite organisation that, in fact, has been a partner in power in Saudi Arabia since its formation. Both have collaborated with the western nations for over a century. They first, backed the British against the Ottoman Empire; later they joined the fight against international communism. They also opposed the powerful Arab nationalist movement and the Soviet-backed regime in Afghanistan. Differences also persist on the presence in the Kingdom of U.S. troops who came to expel the Iraqis from Kuwait. The Americans promised to withdraw from the Kingdom when the Kuwait operation was done or when asked to leave; but they never completely left Saudi Arabia. About 5,000 U.S. troops still remain in the country. Their presence has also divided the Wahabite movement. Prince Abdullah is fully aware of the situation and that is why he began to question the continued presence of the U.S. military personnel in the Kingdom. In the absence of democracy, the underground militant Islamic organisations are gaining ground, calling for a jehad against the U.S. and targeting its military personnel in the Kingdom. However, the militants are not opposed to Prince Abdullah and he remains the most popular leader in the Kingdom. He believes the American withdrawal would help in containing militancy and Saudi Arabia is playing a role in finding a mechanism to moderate the jehadi movement with the help of the existing Islamic leadership within the country. The U.S. does not subscribe to his views. Prince Abdullah is not in favour of taking any extreme measures against the U.S. He just wants a better balance in bilateral ties, which are now heavily tilted in favour of America. Basically, he wants to protect Saudi interests while maintaining its status as principal ally of the U.S. in the region. However, it is too early to say how the Saudi-American relations will develop but one thing is certain: it will not be easy for the Saudi leadership to ensure moderation in the U.S. policy towards the Kingdom or in the region. This was reflected in the recent standoff on Iraq but ultimately the Saudi Government was left with no alternative but to accept the American position. However, the U.S. will not stop here. It will continue to press the Saudi leadership to bring about changes in the country's social and political set-up. The Americans want to have a new social contract with the Saudi Kingdom which is still not ready for any fundamental changes. So the differences between the two are sure to deepen.
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