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Two verdicts and emerging scenario

By K.K. Katyal

Two elections. Two verdicts. The electoral exercises in Pakistan for a new Parliament; and in Jammu and Kashmir for the State Assembly were vastly different, considering their background, scale and goals, but there is one common point — the outcome in the two cases will have a close bearing, separately and cumulatively, on the developments in the subcontinent, on the course of India-Pakistan relations and Kashmir-related matters. For good or for bad.

In Pakistan, the election was meant to bring about transfer of power, though limited, from the military-controlled dispensation to a democratic set-up.

The purpose was to reverse the process, set in motion by the military coup three years ago — as required by the country's Supreme Court. That the coup leader, and now the President, Pervez Musharraf, had taken precautions to perpetuate his hold is a different story.

In Jammu and Kashmir, it was part of the on-going exercise under the Constitution, another poll in the series, conducted over the years. With one difference.

In the past, the elections were perceived to have been rigged by the ruling party of the day in its favour. This impression, widespread as it was, added complications to the Kashmir imbroglio. This was as fair and free a poll as was possible in the given situation — and this was vouchsafed by diplomats of other countries.

The threats and violence perpetrated by the militants did limit the participation but, at the same time, highlighted the fact that a good number, some 44 per cent of the electorate, was not cowed down by the fear of the gun.

The poll in Pakistan was, by and large, peaceful, there being no major cases of irregularities on the day votes were cast. But there was sufficient evidence of what was described as pre-poll rigging, which distorted the verdict. The ruling establishment barred the leaders of the two mainstream parties, Benazir Bhutto of the PPP and Nawaz Sharif of the Muslim League (N), from contesting — even from entering the country. Through electorate planning and meticulous execution, it floated a pliable outfit, that instantly required the nickname, King's party — the Muslim League (Qaed-e-Azam). And sure enough it emerged as the largest single force in a hung National Assembly.

The verdict was, thus, the result of careful engineering on the part of Gen. Musharraf. He ensured a pivotal role for this officially-blessed party — in keeping with the rationale for its launch and promotion.

At the same time, the establishment also lent a helping hand to the combine of the religious parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), in the belief that they would cut into the vote banks of the major parties.

The ruler had not bargained for their impressive showing at the hustings. In the past, their combined strength in the National Assembly did not go beyond the single digit. The stunning success of the MMA would not but be an unpleasant surprise to the establishment. It was, clearly, a case of miscalculation.

In Jammu and Kashmir, too, the poll threw up some surprises — the defeat of the National Conference, the emergence of the Congress and of a new group, of less than three years' standing, the People's Democratic Party, led by a former Union Home Minister — and, of course, a former Congress leader, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed — belied all forecasts. Then there was the virtual demise in the State of the BJP, the leader of the ruling coalition at the Centre.

What stood out was the ascendancy of the secular, pro-India political forces, apart, of course, from the fairness and transparency of the poll process. Separatist groups such as the Hurriyat chose to boycott — officially. In practice, however, they too involved themselves even though marginally. It is no secret that their supporters worked for the defeat of the National Conference.

The Jammu and Kashmir verdict could be a major step towards national consensus on the modalities for resolving the Kashmir problem.

This will be the result of the shared stake of the mainstream parties — of the BJP and others, in office at the Centre, and of the Congress, the PDP and other non-NDA elements who may assume power in the State. The fact of partisan exploitation of possible initiatives is, thus, bound to be reduced. This may mean a fillip to efforts to address the internal aspect of the Kashmir issue.

In Pakistan, on the other hand, the particular nature of the fragmented verdict may well lay the seeds of confrontation between Gen. Musharraf and the religious parties, which look set to forming Governments in the NWFP and Baluchistan. Whether scenarios such as recourse to the dismissal of the two provincial Governments in the near future would come true is hard to say now, but could a clash be averted between Gen. Musharraf, committed to a hunt of the Al-Qaeda and Taliban cadres as required by the U.S. and the MMM, wedded, as it were, to an intense anti-American line? That setting, apart from other factors, would hardly be conducive for efforts to tackle outstanding problems between India and Pakistan.

The world community, especially major powers such as the U.S., had been waiting for the conclusion of the two polls to start the next phase of ``engagement'' with India and Pakistan and to work for a resumption of the dialogue between them.

Far from sharing Pakistan's view that the J&K poll was a farce, they recognise its significance. They regard it as a positive step but as part of a process to settle the Kashmir issue.

New Delhi should, therefore, be prepared for renewed exhortation from the world capitals for the dialogue resumption. But has it a coherent strategy?

There are other questions, of which answers could not be provided now.

How will the U.S. take the Pakistan verdict? Will Washington counsel India to ease pressure on a beleaguered Musharraf? Will the General use the ascendancy of the religious parties for increased mileage out of the Americans? And what will be the fall-out for India?

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