The Hindu : Triangular diplomacy: phase two

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Oct 21, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Triangular diplomacy: phase two

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI Oct. 20. The unprecedented American engagement with India and Pakistan over the last year is about to enter a new phase. It is moving from crisis management to conflict resolution. The next stage of American diplomacy in the subcontinent will certainly be as exciting as the first one. But fingers must remain crossed on the prospects for its success. Since the attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, Washington worked hard to pull New Delhi and Islamabad from the brink of a war it feared could turn nuclear.

With India now initiating military de-escalation the American focus is expected to be on facilitating a peace process aimed at removing the sources of Indo-Pak tension. Why would the United States want to inject itself in a messy dialogue between India and Pakistan? For three reasons. One, Washington does not want to get embroiled every other year in defusing a nuclear crisis between the subcontinent's nuclear rivals. It would rather make a sustained effort now to see if India and Pakistan can find ways to resolve the Kashmir dispute and normalise bilateral relations.

Two, for the first time in decades, the U.S. has good relations with both New Delhi and Islamabad. Having developed political equities in both countries since September 11, Washington is uniquely poised to promote a peace process between the two.

Three, in an important political leap, India has recognised it needs the cooperation of the international community in pressing the Pakistani Army to discard the instruments of extremism and terrorism.

Equally important for India is the involvement of the U.S. in containing the negative forces in Pakistan and nudging it towards a reasonable settlement of the Kashmir question.

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For India, the diplomatic option of refusing to talk until there is complete cessation of cross-border terrorism, might have run its course. Instead of a sequential approach — talks follow an end to cross-border terrorism — India might want to consider a simultaneous one where there will be talks on all issues amid continuing international pressure on Pakistan to live up to its word on abjuring terrorism on a permanent basis.

New Delhi's readiness to adopt such a line will depend on the kind of signals that Islamabad puts out in the next few weeks. If the U.S. can persuade Pakistan to demonstrate a measure of good faith by keeping the levels of infiltration low, a decision in New Delhi on resuming the dialogue might not be far away.

Meanwhile, India must ponder if the political steps it had taken after December 13 make sense any more. Having unilaterally decided on military mobilisation, India must now consider the restoration of transport links and diplomatic relations at the level of ambassadors.

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When it begins, this bout of Indo-Pakistan dialogue is likely to be very different from the pattern seen in recent years. In the past India insisted on "strict bilateralism'' and rejected intervention by outsiders in Indo-Pakistan talks. Now India's proposals to Pakistan must also be aimed at the

international community, which will stay engaged with the incipient peace process.

India might find that the world is in greater empathy with its demands for unconditional restoration of normal trade relations, people-to-people contact, and implementation of nuclear and military confidence-building measures with Pakistan.

Islamabad's determination to hold progress on these issues hostage to a final resolution of the Kashmir question will be less tenable in the new circumstances.

If India is prepared to engage in a serious dialogue on Kashmir, there will be strong international support to its demands for immediate progress on other issues.

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India this week will host one of its good friends from Japan, the former Prime Minister, Yoshiro Mori. Japan was the last of the major powers to come to terms with India's nuclear tests. Despite stiff bureaucratic opposition at home to reviving ties with a nuclear India, Mr. Mori came to India in August 2000.

Besides the U.S., New Delhi needs cooperation from other powers like Japan to encourage Pakistan's movement towards political moderation, economic modernisation and a historic reconciliation with India.

As the largest aid giver to the subcontinent, Tokyo might have a crucial role in shaping Pakistan's responses to Indian initiatives in the coming months. One wonders, if Mr. Mori brings with him any new ideas from Japan about peace in the subcontinent.

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In diplomacy, venues are often as important as the high-level political encounters themselves. All the major world leaders are lobbying the U.S. to meet the President, George W. Bush, in an informal setting at his expansive ranch in Crawford, Texas.

After the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and the Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia it is the turn of China's leader, Jiang Zemin, to travel to Crawford this week. Rumours from Beijing are that Mr. Jiang, who will be giving up at least some of his powers at the party conclave next month, wanted the meeting in Crawford badly when he is the top gun of China.

During his visit to the U.S. this time Mr. Jiang is likely to face fewer Tibetan demonstrators. Thanks to Beijing's recent charm offensive towards Tibet and the new expectations on a dialogue between Beijing and the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leadership in Dharamshala has called for a suspension of protest demonstrations against travelling Chinese leaders.

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Triangular diplomacy: phase two