The Hindu : Close calls

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Oct 27, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Close calls

Twice this year, the situation came close to D-Day, says Sandeep Dikshit.

THE FLAG was up for the world intelligence community when troops belonging to the Dimapur-based fourth division located near the border with China began packing their bags around the end of December last year. A few days earlier, several train rakes offloaded their cargo at stations mid-way and lined up in yards near Guwahati awaiting instructions. The priority code being flashed by "MIL-RAIL" was `White Hot'.

For the soldiers, it provided an unparalleled real life experience. Officer after officer who went to the front — even those who had spent two tenures in energy-sapping counter-insurgency operations — confessed that the time spent in the trenches was the richest in terms of experience.

Indeed, twice this year, the situation came close to D-Day. The armed forces have three codes — "M" or mobilisation, "W" at the countdown stage and finally "D-Day". The first time India came close to waging war was in January. In June, the country again readied for a conflict but the moment passed.

The forward deployment was a turning moment in India's military history. For the first time, military assets and men from the eastern theatre were diverted to the front with Pakistan. There was simply no comparison with the 1971 war when the eastern sector was also active. The effort in relocation was minimal for the Air Force and slightly more for the Navy. But transporting troops from the eastern-most fringes of the country to its western and northern peripheries was a huge task for the Army. Even the tank replacement regiments were sent to the front. The multi-crore rupee payment to the Railways is a good enough indicator. The haul-back promises to be equally arduous. The Army does not have pantry cars and cooking on flat wagons is tricky. Massive electrification of the Railways has led to a rise in electrocution cases when men climb on top of artillery guns or large vehicles to tighten the lashings. And the situation is terrible when it rains.

The threat of nuclear war was also for real. For the first time, strike formations were distributed over a 300-400 sq. km area to dissipate the possibility of complete annihilation in case of a nuclear strike. Pakistan too similarly scattered one of its strike forces. The n-factor led to a change in tactics. It was felt that a conventional war would be limited to just two or three days. The Army brass, especially the Chief of the Army Staff, S. Padmanabhan, wanted total troop mobilisation before hostilities broke out so that in the narrow gap of two or three days quick territorial gains could be made through a massive punch inside Pakistan. At the same time, defences had to be sound because there would be no time for recovering lost territory.

This theory of a short engagement has remained untested and has found critics who point out that the Kargil War lasted for a few months without bringing the nuclear factor into play. The jury is still out on whether the theory of a short conventional war in view of the existing n-factor is justifiable. Officers now point out that had India carried out the planned thrust in early January, Pakistan would have been caught unprepared. It was only after Pervez Musharraf's January 12 speech that Pakistan began plugging the gaps in its defences.

According to the top leadership, the reason for recalling the troops was based on an assessment by the National Security Advisory Board. If that was the case, why was a similar evaluation not ordered earlier, say in July or August?

As a result, the impact on troops and equipment was degrading. Training courses — an important feature of Army life — were disrupted. Soon, the 10-month forward deployment is bound to be seriously questioned by critics.

The Defence Minister, George Fernandes, has maintained that the "objective was achieved". But analysts will want the Government to concretely define the objective it claims was achieved by putting over half a million men under tremendous mental stress for over 300 days. Was the cost of abetting terrorism raised to unacceptable limits? Has international pressure finally garrotted Pakistan's terrorist training camps? The answer to both the questions is bound to be no. The Army will continue to grapple with the complications arising from having gone into battle-ready mode.

The prolonged deployment has led to changes in the minefields at several places. Troops will have to develop novel methods of de-mining fields and even the perimeters of villages before the villagers are allowed to return. Ways will have to be found to dispose the ammunition in short-range missiles such as Milan that were armed. While the country will celebrate the festival of lights in a few days from now, several thousand soldiers troops will remain on the border to ensure normalcy for the rest.

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