The Hindu : Keshubhai to target BJP votebank

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Nov 03, 2002

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Keshubhai to target BJP votebank

By Manas Dasgupta

GANDHINAGAR Nov. 1. A fair number of ``independents'' sponsored by the supporters of the former Chief Minister, Keshubhai Patel, may clutter the Gujarat election arena this time.

His ``Leuva Patel'' community is likely to play a crucial role in deciding the fortunes of the BJP and the Chief Minister, Narendra Modi. Yet to reconcile to the way their leader was unceremoniously thrown out from the Chief Ministership, for which they blame Mr. Modi, the ``Leuva Patels'' are planning to put up a sizeable number of candidates, particularly in the Saurashtra region, which may cause a serious dent in the BJP votebank.

Mr. Modi's ``gaurav yatra'' attracted sizeable crowds. But the BJP leadership is not sure whether the turnouts could be translated into votes. The presence of ``Patel'' candidates, who have traditionally supported the BJP, can easily upset its calculations now.

The ``preparations'' among the ``Patels'' are going on with the knowledge of the former Chief Minister. Under the garb of working out ``social service plans,'' the Leuva Patel Samaj had been holding meetings in Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Surat and other places in the presence of Mr. Patel where the election strategy was also reported to have been discussed in detail.

Sources close to Mr. Patel said he believed that neither the BJP nor the Congress would be able to emerge as a clear winner in the 182-member Assembly and the ``independents'' might play a crucial role in the ministry formation.

The Patel Samaj is working out a strategy on the lines of the former Chief Minister, Chimanbhai Patel, who, after quitting the Congress, formed his own Kisan Mazdoor Lok Paksha before the 1975 elections. The KMLP, which managed to secure 13 seats, emerged as the ``king maker'' and with its support the Janata Morcha ministry was installed in the office.

The ``Patels'' have over 80 lakh votes more than 70 per cent of which belong to Leuva sub-caste and the remaining ``Kadvas.'' The Leuvas dominate the Saurashtra and the south Gujarat regions while Kadvas are in majority in north Gujarat.

The rich and influential Patel Samaj is believed to have planned to set up at least 50 ``Patel'' candidates as independents in various regions. If the casteist card worked over the BJP's communal card, the Patels believed that they could play a decisive role in at least 30 constituencies, particularly in the Saurashtra region, the home of the former Chief Minister where he continued to wield considerable influence among the Patels.

In the event of neither of the major parties emerging as a clear winner, the independent Patels would extend support to the BJP on the condition of Mr. Keshubhai Patel being made the chief minister. The sources close to Mr. Patel were confident that the BJP leadership would be forced to accept the condition as retaining power in Gujarat at any cost was crucial for the party's prospects in the 2004 Parliamentary elections.

Mr. Patel's recent comments on the outcome of the Assembly elections were significant in this context. Differing from the party's central leadership, Mr. Patel disagreed that there was any ``wave.'' Despite repeated assertions by the party leadership, including the Deputy Prime Minister, L. K. Advani, and the BJP national president, Venkaiah Naidu, that Mr. Modi would continue to be the Chief Minister if the BJP retained power, Mr. Patel maintained that the leadership issue was ``open'' and could be decided only by the elected representatives of the party.

Mr. Patel made no secret of his strong resentment against the party leadership for the way he was forced out of the office in October last year. He was also unhappy at Mr. Modi being projected the ``best'' Chief Minister totally ignoring his three and half year's stint in the office. Despite repeated efforts, he refused to attend Mr. Modi's ``gaurav yatra'' even in his home region, except for the inaugural ceremony at Phagwel, and sought to distance himself from the caretaker Chief Minister.

If Mr. Patel's political calculations worked, the BJP might retain power in the State with the support of the ``independents'' but the controversial Mr. Modi would not remain at the helm of affairs, unless the party's central leadership could nip the ``Patel rebellion'' in the bud to prevent a struggle within.

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