The Hindu : Reviving Indo-Pak. talks

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Nov 07, 2002

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Reviving Indo-Pak. talks

By C. Raja Mohan

India needs to outline a road map towards resumption of a dialogue with Pakistan... Merely parroting the mantra that there will be no talks until cross-border terrorism ends will put India increasingly on the diplomatic defensive.

INDIA, PAKISTAN and the United States are in danger of losing an important opportunity to initiate a peace process in the Subcontinent that has arisen from the recent decision in New Delhi to de-escalate the ten-month-long military confrontation with Islamabad. Unless all three take steps quickly, the current political window for a renewed political engagement between India and Pakistan could shut amidst a potential rise in terrorist activity from across the border.

Six months ago, at the height of the military tensions between the subcontinental rivals, few could have imagined the confluence of positive circumstances in place today. India which launched the biggest military mobilisation in its history has unilaterally decided to scale it down. India has also succeeded in holding credible elections in Jammu and Kashmir, widely acknowledged by the international community as free and fair. The people of the State have spoken, there is a new Government in charge and prospects have never looked better for a productive dialogue between New Delhi and Srinagar. Meanwhile, the elections to the National Assembly in Pakistan, despite the pre-rigging by Pervez Musharraf, have produced an unexpected political dynamism in Islamabad.

The developments over the last few weeks have loosened, if only a wee bit, the political knot in the Subcontinent that had tightened since the December 13 attack on India's Parliament. From a situation of near-war that could have turned nuclear, India and Pakistan have moved towards a situation of no-war. But a peace process that can be structured from the present situation remains elusive. Continuing political drift in New Delhi, Islamabad and Washington could easily allow the present opportunity to slip by. Small political steps from all the three in the next few days could, however, create the basis for a resumption of an India-Pakistan dialogue in the not-too-distant future.

The U.S., which played a key role in defusing the military tensions between India and Pakistan last summer, has emerged as the principal channel of communication between the two countries. At a time when all political dialogue between India and Pakistan was suspended after the Agra summit in July 2001, the Bush Administration has become the natural facilitator of crisis management in the Subcontinent.

With the U.S. attention now shifting to the impending war against Iraq, it is not clear whether Washington has the political energy to stay with what it started in the Subcontinent. Although high-level visitors from the U.S. continue to pour into the Subcontinent, it remains to be seen if the Bush Administration is mentally prepared to exercise what it takes to move the region from crisis management to a peace process that could help resolve the political conflict between India and Pakistan and normalise bilateral relations.

Even if the U.S. decides to stay the course, its attempts to promote a process of reconciliation in the region will not succeed unless it retains its focus on ending terrorism. Washington will not be able to conjure up a dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad by just urging for one.

For an India-Pakistan dialogue to start and succeed, Washington must deliver on the promises it made to India last summer. It was the assurance from the Bush Administration (based on Gen. Musharraf's word in June) that Pakistan will end cross-border infiltration on a permanent basis that led to the first Indian steps towards de-escalation.

That promise remains unfulfilled. More damaging has been the loss of American political credibility in New Delhi. No one in the Government now even expects the Bush Administration to maintain pressure on Islamabad to keep its word. Nor is anyone in New Delhi raising the issue with the American interlocutors. Having given up on the U.S., India has taken a tough line on the resumption of a dialogue with Pakistan by linking it to a cessation of cross-border terrorism.

The principal objective of the Bush Administration in devoting a high level of diplomatic energy towards the Subcontinent has been the avoidance of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. But the U.S. should know more than anyone else that nuclear stability in the region and cross-border terrorism do not go together. It might be politically convenient for Washington today to forget about the promises that Gen. Musharraf made in June. But the continued stoking of terrorism by Pakistan can bring the region back to the brink of war within no time.

The American proposals for a renewed dialogue between India and Pakistan will have few takers in New Delhi unless Washington visibly pressures Islamabad to end cross-border terrorism. Until recently, the U.S. was arguing that an India-Pakistan dialogue must follow the cessation of cross-border infiltration by Pakistan and military de-escalation by India. But now India has unilaterally begun to de-escalate. Washington cannot expect New Delhi to take steps towards a dialogue while Islamabad continues with its sponsorship of terrorism in India.

While India is right to keep its political focus riveted on ending cross-border terrorism, it risks the danger of losing the political initiative in shaping the triangular diplomacy with the U.S. and Pakistan. To retain the upper hand, India needs to outline a road map towards resumption of a dialogue with Pakistan. There have been occasional hints from the Government of a sequence of actions it could take in response to specific actions from across the border. New Delhi needs to go public with a checklist of actions from Pakistan and the Indian response to them. Merely parroting the mantra that there will be no talks until cross-border terrorism ends will put India increasingly on the diplomatic defensive.

A new Government in Pakistan is expected to be sworn in shortly. Despite all its obvious limitations of operating in the shadow of Gen. Musharraf, the revival of the post of Prime Minister in Pakistan has its own political consequences. India would inevitably debate the prospect of doing business with the new Government in Pakistan. But a favourable political decision in New Delhi would depend on the expressed commitment of the new Prime Minister that he abides by the promises of Gen. Musharraf on January 12 that Pakistani soil will not be used to promote terrorism anywhere in the world, and that of early June that infiltration will permanently end. That is the least New Delhi would expect from the new Government in Islamabad.

If the new civilian Government of Pakistan takes a step further down the road and agrees to normal trading relations with India, the prospect for an early India-Pakistan dialogue could brighten quickly. New Delhi has hinted in recent days that the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, could travel to Islamabad to attend a regional summit if Pakistan ends its self-defeating policy of no-trade with India.

There can be no sensible strategy for economic renewal in Pakistan that does not include expanded trade with India, the largest market in the region.

If the new Government in Pakistan recognises this economic self-interest, or the international community which is pouring billions of dollars of aid into Pakistan persuades it to do so, renewed political contact between New Delhi and Islamabad might be at hand. And that could set the stage for a resumption of India-Pakistan dialogue.

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