The Hindu : Strategic triangle in focus during Putin's visit

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Dec 03, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Strategic triangle in focus during Putin's visit

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI Dec. 2. As the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, arrives here from China tomorrow, the idea of a triangular political relationship among New Delhi, Moscow and Beijing will once again be in focus. The enthusiasm for triangular cooperation in the public domain, however, does not square with the political caution here in the Government.

The proposal for a "strategic triangle'' had originally come from Russia in the mid-1990s. It took a tangible form when the Foreign Ministers of India, Russia and China — Yashwant Sinha, Igor Ivanov and Tang Jiaxuan — met on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly in New York last September.

The inaugural session of the top diplomats from the three countries did not take the breath away from either the United States or the rest of the world. Nor will the strategic triangle transform the world order in the coming years.

Anti-American enthusiasts might be imputing far greater political content to the strategic triangle than the Governments in New Delhi, Moscow and Beijing. All the three are determined to avoid giving any impression that they are ganging up against Washington.

It is also clear that even if they want to build an anti-American axis, they will find it extremely hard to translate it into a fact. All the three second-tier powers in the international system do want more space vis-a-vis the sole super power. But none of them can afford a political confrontation with the United States. And, the temptation for separate deals with Washington is too strong.

Since September 11, 2001, the Bush Administration has moved vigorously to improve relationships with India, Russia, and China. Like Bismarck's Germany in 19th Century Europe, today the United States has more comprehensive ties with India, Russia and China than any two of them have between themselves.

India and Russia, for example, have an extraordinary defence relationship. But trade between them is barely 15 per cent of the commercial flows between India and the U.S. The political dialogue between Moscow and Washington is far deeper than that India has with either Russia or the U.S.

India has a larger trade with China than Russia. But China's trade with India is a mere pittance compared to that with the U.S. Further, the political ties between New Delhi and Beijing remain wary and uncertain.

For every Indian who believes his country should line up with China against the U.S., there might be another who demands that New Delhi join Washington to limit Beijing's growing clout. And China's all-weather relationship with Pakistan always constrains the clamour in New Delhi for a political alliance with Beijing.

The relations between Russia and China have dramatically expanded in recent years. But the U.S. is not losing sleep. Washington knows that Russia and China will run sooner than later into the limits that geography imposes on two large and ambitious neighbours. China could not be too happy with Mr. Putin's deal-making with the U.S. on issues ranging from missile defence to Iraq.

By any measure, India is the weakest of the major powers. Its relations with the U.S., Russia and China are far thinner than the ties among the other three. That fact alone should define India's strategy. New Delhi's interest lies in expanding bilateral relations with Washington, Moscow and Beijing rather than building alliance with one or two against the other.

With the U.S., India needs to consolidate the current upward movement in bilateral relations. With Russia, India cannot hope to sustain the old romance only on the basis of defence purchases. New Delhi desperately needs to inject some commercial content into the Moscow connection and reach out to the new elites running post-Soviet Russia.

And there are countless bilateral problems to be sorted out with China, starting with the boundary dispute. If there is one thing New Delhi can learn from Moscow and Beijing, it is the pragmatism they have demonstrated in dealing with Washington and each other. India should be emulating the actions of Russia and China, not their occasional rhetoric against hegemony.

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