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Modi outplayed opponents at the last minute

By Harish Khare

NEW DELHI DEC. 15. Nadiad and Sabarmati constituencies were the two contests to be watched. The contests were mini-showcases for Gujarat. And till a few days ago, no one was willing to predict the outcome. The Congress lost in both constituencies and, consequently, the BJP won in the entire State. The two results offer a tentative clue to understanding how the BJP victory came about.

In Nadiad, the Congress candidate, Dinsha Patel, was trying to wrest the seat from the BJP. Mr. Patel is a sitting MP from Kaira; his opponent, Pankaj Desai, the sitting MLA, once a protégé of Mr. Patel, who is one of the most respected politicians in Kaira district. It was a "guru-chela" standoff. In the last Lok Sabha election, Mr. Desai denied Mr. Patel a majority in the Nadiad Assembly segment. The question, now, was whether Mr. Patel would be able to convince the Nadiad voters to reward him for being a constituency-friendly parliamentarian.

Mr. Patel's appeal had always been independent of his party. This time too it was just "Dinsha", the familiar brand name. Pitted against the veteran was the energy of the younger generation, which felt itself galvanised by the Chief Minister, Narendra Modi. When Mr. Modi's "guarav yatra" came to Nadiad town two months ago, 30,000 people came to listen to him.

Since the post-Godhra violence, there was this whisper campaign against Mr. Patel. The charge: "Oh, he helped the Muslims during the riots. He arranged for vegetables and milk for them". For the veteran politician, the response was simple: "As a leader, I am duty bound to provide succour to anyone in trouble".

So, Nadiad was asked to choose between a certain kind of sensitivity represented by Mr. Patel and the politics of aggressive animosity represented by the young Desai. The town could not make up its mind till the last minute. That is till the "anti-fatwa" campaign struck a chord.

The other litmus test contest was in Sabarmati. It was here that a BJP defeat in the by-election triggered a chain of events and conspiracies that saw the ouster of Keshubhai Patel and the installation of Mr. Modi as Chief Minister. Sabarmati is a Patel-dominated constituency. The Congress candidate, Narhari Amin, is a Patel. Resourceful, financially and organisationally. When the battle began, Sabarmati was pencilled in as a "sure bet" for the Congress.

Till a few days before the elections, especially when the "anti-fatwa" campaign was launched, the Congress insiders were nervously observing: "There are virtually no Muslim votes in Sabarmati, and who knows the Hindu voter's mind". In the event, Mr. Amin lost by a huge margin.

Nadiad and Sabarmati represent the larger last-minute change of mind — and a change of electoral fortunes — through most of Gujarat. A "fatwa" made its mysterious appearance. Immediately, the organisational energies of the BJP, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh were mobilised to denounce the "fatwa".

A "Hindu reaction strategy" was instantly put in place. To this, Mr. Modi added his own spin: "Crackers would be burst in Pakistan if the Congress won". The code words were obvious and were lapped up by the voters. Subjective emotionalism, cranked up during the last 72 hours of the campaign, was enough to overturn the objective conditions, which were spelling defeat for the BJP.

By contrast, the Congress, in the last 72 hours, reverted back to its familiar self-destructive mode. The leaders and cadres become totally complacent after the party president, Sonia Gandhi's largely-attended public meetings. The need was to keep up the same organisational efforts that were deployed to bring crowds for Ms. Gandhi. Perhaps, too much energy and too many resources went into making Ms. Gandhi's meetings a success.

If that complacency was not enough, the factional feuds broke out. Instead of collective synergy, quite a bit of attention was paid to "taking care of" potential chief ministerial candidates. Amarsinh Chaudhary narrowly squeaked in; Shankersinh Waghela's son too was made to lose; Dinsha Patel and Narhari Amin lost. The Congress squandered away its advantages. In the end, the party simply did not have the leadership or the imagination to challenge Mr. Modi's definition of Indian nationalism.

On Saturday, the Central Minister, Shahnawaz Khan, was asked why he was kept out (by the BJP) of the Gujarat campaign, he replied meaningfully: "I am a spinner; the Gujarat pitch was more suitable for fast bowling".

In the Gujarat match, Mr. Modi did the fast bowling, from both ends. He outthought and outplayed the other side in the slog overs. That made the difference.

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