![]() Friday, Dec 20, 2002 |
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WITH THE ADMISSION of ten new members at its recent summit in Copenhagen, the European Union (E.U.) has boosted its presence on the world stage though time alone will tell whether it will bring a commensurate weight to bear on global decision-making. What the E.U. has just undertaken is an expansion that widens its territory by 23 per cent, increases its population to 450 million and rounds off its economy to near parity with the U.S. at $ 9 trillion. A network of formalised political relations an inter-connection that is more durable than that provided by day-to-day diplomacy now ties the nations of Europe from the shores of the Atlantic to the western border of Russia. But while the expansion has certainly been to the advantage of the new members, eight of which are the economically less developed nations of Eastern Europe with the other two being the small island-states of Malta and Cyprus, there is no certainty that enlargement by itself will enhance the E.U.'s clout on the global stage. This uncertainty will last at least till the middle of next year when the E.U. begins to consider the constitution that is being drafted and will come closer to a decision on whether unitarianism or federalism should be its fundamental principle. While some of the heavyweights within the E.U. favour a future set-up wherein a central executive and legislature wield great power, others would be comfortable with a variant of the current format wherein the E.U.'s institutions serve as adjuncts to the nation-state and do not supersede them. Among the more pertinent questions that the member-states will have to ponder is about the degree to which they would like to surrender their autonomy to make decisions on political and strategic matters. If the defining of the E.U.'s political identity will have to wait till the drafting of the constitution is completed, the Copenhagen summit appears to have taken a (perhaps not so conscious) decision on its cultural identity. It did so by postponing for a further two years any decision on Turkey's inclusion. There was no expectation that Turkey would be included in the current round of expansion but Ankara had fervent hopes that the E.U. summit would at least set a date for the commencement of negotiations that would lead to its eventual admission. But, despite the hectic diplomatic effort put in by Ankara and Washington, the E.U. agreed only that it would meet in December 2004 to decide whether Turkey had made enough progress in democratisation and the observance of human rights to qualify for such negotiations. If an E.U. that consisted wholly of western liberal democracies could not agree to Turkey's admission it is difficult to see how an expanded body in which each of the newly admitted East European states as well as Cyprus will have the same voting rights as any other member would be more accommodating. Cyprus and Turkey are locked in a bitter bilateral dispute and workers in the East European states are not likely to let their Governments agree that the opportunities that they have just won for themselves in the West European markets should be extended to the Turks as well. Further political and economic arguments will be piled on top of the basic concerns of a Christian Europe at admitting a nation of 70 million Muslims (a number set to rapidly expand) into their fold. While the Europeans appear to be sensitive that the issue should not be defined in religious terms, the widespread belief among the Turks that they were being kept out only because of their faith is likely to become more entrenched. The people of Turkey had given a clear mandate to a religiously oriented political formation in elections held just weeks ago. They have initially reacted with equanimity to the E.U.'s rejection of their bid for membership. But there is no guarantee that the Turks too will not succumb to the rage and resentment at being rejected by the West that afflicts so many others in the Muslim world.
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