The Hindu : U.S. attack may not be imminent

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Dec 20, 2002

International

International

U.S. attack may not be imminent

By Atul Aneja

MANAMA (BAHRAIN) Dec.19. In a signal that a military attack on Iraq may not be imminent, key U.S. warships have been pulled out of West Asia.

The aircraft carrier, Kitty Hawk, returned to its home port of Yokosuka in Japan last Friday. The Kitty Hawk is the only one among the U.S. Navy's 12 aircraft carriers that is permanently deployed outside the country. Analysts point out that this warship had been on standby for most of the last seven weeks for a possible attack against Iraq.

In addition, the carrier, George Washington, is routing out of the Mediterranean to its home port in Virginia in the U.S. The movement of George Washington out of Iraq's proximity would mean that the U.S. would be short of 70 to 80 planes to mount a possible attack on Iraq.

The U.S. will also be short of 400 long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles as nine smaller ships that are part of George Washington's carrier task force are also being brought back to their home base.

The U.S. defence department, however, has cautioned against reading too much into the withdrawal of the two carriers and as this would not affect combat readiness. Military analysts point out that the U.S. armed forces would feel comfortable if four to five aircraft carriers were present in the region before an attack on Iraq was launched.

But with the rotation of George Washington and Kitty Hawk, only one aircraft carrier, Abraham Lincoln, is at present within the striking distance of Iraq. This ship is also expected to return to its home base in Washington by the middle of next month.

The U.S. navy is reported to have deployed or is in the process of deploying two carriers, Harry S. Truman and the Constellation, in the region. But additional number of carriers, possibly two, will still have to be brought in before a possible attack on Iraq is launched. Analysts point out that the process of bringing in additional carriers could take around a month to complete. In that case, it is unlikely that full-scale operations against Iraq can begin before the end of January. There are three other factors that discourage the immediate use of military force. First, the British Parliament is heading for the Christmas and New Year break. Any declaration of war outside Parliament is highly unlikely. Indicating that war plans were yet to be finalised, Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, chief of the British Defence Staff, has said that the military was finding the lack of a clear plan frustrating.

Second, the preparations for an alternative regime to the Government of the Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein, are yet to be completed.

Third, the U.S. is being forced to pay greater attention to North Korea, and this could, in the coming days, become a factor that could divert some of its attention from Iraq.

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