The Hindu : Victory... at what cost?

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Dec 22, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Victory... at what cost?

In Gujarat, the BJP made the maximum gains in areas where the communal riots were at their worst, says Manas Dasgupta.

Modi... divide and rule.

"IT MAY not happen in science, but it has happened in politics. The lotus has bloomed into a Banyan tree in Gujarat," said a proud Chief Minister-designate, Narendra Modi, after the BJP's massive victory in the Assembly elections. Not even many of the senior BJP leaders had expected it. Even several seats that the party had given up as lost unexpectedly came into its kitty.

The Congress played into the hands of the BJP. Taking the Muslim votes for granted, it also tried to project itself as a "Hindu party" which, however, failed to impress the hardcore Hindu voters. The massive support from the minorities could not take the party to the winning post as it suffered considerable erosion in its tribal and Dalit vote banks and failed to lure the upper caste voters, the Brahmins, the Patels as well as the socially and educationally backward classes. The BJP and the VHP also made full use of the so-called "fatwa" to the minorities to vote for the Congress to polarise the Hindu voters.

Notwithstanding the claims of the BJP that its success was due to the "good governance" of the party in the last four and half years, the voting pattern makes it clear that the communal card alone has swept the party to victory. In fact, nothing had happened since Mr. Modi took over as Chief Minister that could have changed the BJP's fortunes except Godhra and the subsequent riots. Expectedly, the BJP made the maximum gains in the areas in central Gujarat where the communal riots were at their worst, but the percolation of the communal sentiments even to the unaffected rural areas saved the party's blushes in Saurashtra and north Gujarat while it suffered marginally in south Gujarat. The people of earthquake-hit Kutch district amply demonstrated how the anti-incumbency factor would have demolished the BJP this time if not for the "Modi magic" of communal hype. The defeat of about a dozen members of the caretaker Modi Cabinet, mostly in the Kutch-Saurashtra and south Gujarat regions which were by and large unaffected by the riots underlined the impact of the anti-incumbency factor. The moderates in the party who were reluctant to play the Hindu card fell victims to the anti-incumbency factor.

The BJP's well-executed plan proved successful in central Gujarat where the communal riots entirely displaced the Congress from its stronghold. As against the 29 seats the Congress and Shankarsinh Waghela's erstwhile Rashtriya Janata Party had held in the dissolved House out of the 43 in the region, the tally this time was just five seats. In fact in the districts of Vadodara, Dahod and Panchmahals, of which Godhra is the district headquarters, the Congress was routed in all the 26 seats. The party had claimed 18 seats in these three districts last time.

Not only did the communal card cause a heavy dent in its bastion, it also prevented the Congress from making up the losses elsewhere. The strong Kshatriya base developed by the Congress after Mr. Waghela joined it coupled with the anti-incumbency factor helped the party give a marginally better performance in Kutch-Saurashtra, improving its tally from six to 16 of the 58 seats at stake. In south Gujarat, it was up by just one seat from 11 to 12 out of 29 while in north Gujarat, it managed to hang on to the 13 it had held in the dissolved House. But nothing can compensate for the heavy damages suffered in central Gujarat, the Congress' own stronghold proving its Waterloo this time.

Incidentally, for the first time in the State's history the BJP went past the 50 per cent mark in vote-share from 44 per cent in 1998, giving it an absolute majority both in terms of seats and popular support. Much against its expectations, the Congress could not improve its vote share of around 34 per cent it had held even during the bad years.

Now, in the post-election period it will be a tightrope walk for Mr. Modi to maintain a balance between "good governance" and his macho image. It is one thing to win the elections and quite another to sustain the tempo. He is certain to take recourse to enacting the anti-conversion law, control of the madrassas and such other measures promised in the BJP manifesto to hold the minorities on a tight leash to satisfy his Hindu vote bank. The riot-related pending cases against the Sangh Parivar activists are also unlikely to see their logical end, but all this he will have to do within the framework of the law.

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