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Turbulence ahead

By K.K. Katyal

The new year will see a frontal attack on secularism by the BJP and others of the Sangh Parivar.

THE YEAR 2002 was that of Gujarat — it threw up highly sensitive issues, placing the country and the polity at the cross-roads. Their future will be shaped by the degree of rejection — or acceptance — of the ideology preached and the doctrines enunciated in the last ten months — to be precise, from February 27, when 58 Ram sewaks died in an attack on a Sabarmati Express coach near the Godhra railway station in the State. Gujarat has not been the same again after that ghastly incident. The communal backlash, the killings of hundreds of people, with the police and other law enforcement organs either passive spectators or thoroughly ineffective, added up to one part of the story. The other part was represented by the political moves of the ruling BJP — the premature dissolution of the Gujarat Assembly in July, the call for fresh elections, the clash between the State Government and the Chief Election Commissioner, J.M. Lyngdoh. All that, however, is a thing of the past. But the platform adopted by the BJP, under the stewardship of the Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, the active role of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and other organs of the Sangh Parivar in the Assembly poll, finally held on December 12, the sweep of the BJP — or Modi-ism to be correct — raised some vital questions that would continue to figure in the political discourse in the weeks and months to come. Their answers will have a close bearing not only on the Assembly elections, scheduled for the next year in Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, apart from some north-eastern States, but also on the Lok Sabha elections, due in the last quarter of 2004. More important will be the impact of the questions and answers in the societal context.

One point is already clear. The new year will see a frontal attack on secularism, as a concept or as an ideology, by the BJP and others of the Sangh Parivar — by the likes of Praveen Togadia with singular viciousness, by the BJP seniors in the Government roundly, and the party office-bearers coarsely. A sample of the second category — the Home Minister, L. K. Advani's remark commending Hindutva as a "noble concept'' as against secularism, which was regarded as a cover for Hindu-bashing. All of them would count on the Gujarat victory for the churning of the minds of the people, leading to the widespread acceptance of Hindutva, now paraphrased as "cultural nationalism''. In the new year, one will hear more of the expressions coined during the Gujarat campaign — pseudo-secularist, appeasement, minoritism — as part of a major conceptual assault. This deserves as much attention of the people, intellectuals and lay persons alike, as the immediate role of the BJP leadership — in the context of the coming Assembly elections, making use of the Gujarat experience.

What was the Modi platform? Will it be owned and adopted by the BJP's central leadership, in its original form or with modifications? How effective will the counter-veiling forces, represented by the Congress, the Left and other non-BJP elements be? Some of the slogans used by Mr. Modi for the Assembly poll rhetoric bear repetition. "Mian Musharraf'' looks like becoming a part of the political lexicon, such as (but in a different context) aya rams and gaya rams. It was meant to focus not merely on the evil designs of the neighbouring country but also on the activities of the terrorists operating within India and, through implied suggestions, to establish a linkage between them and sections of the minority community. The same point was sought to be conveyed through emphasis on "Hindutva''. The repeated references to the "pride of the five crore Gujaratis'' were intended to counter the "unjust'' vilification of the State in the rest of the country by the BJP's opponents such as the Congress, on the one hand, and by the critics abroad such as Pakistan, on the other. And to maximise the effect, the two were clubbed together through not so subtle hints. These slogans, on the one hand, served to widen the communal divide caused by Godhra and the subsequent pogrom and, on the other, to engender a sense of insecurity among the majority community and to make electoral use of it. This was a new face of Hindutva — aggressive Hindutva as it were, with the active association of the VHP.

The voices emanating from the BJP camp at the Centre after the Gujarat victory did not provide a clear clue to its approach to next year's Assembly elections. There was, for instance, the emphatic assertion by the party president, M. Venkaiah Naidu — "We shall replicate the Gujarat experience everywhere. It was a mandate for the ideology,'' he said in an obvious reference to Hindutva, the way it was projected and practised in Gujarat. The Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, on the other hand, discounted the talk of Hindutva as an election issue, because it was a way of life. He also distanced himself from the talk of a Hindu Rashtra of the type indulged in by the VHP leaders. Let this not be taken as a sign of division at the top. It was not even a tightrope walk. It was a case of divergence on the surface. The Gujarat platform — not Gujarat — is certain to be replicated in other States. This, of course, will be sought to be supplemented by local factors. Barring Himachal Pradesh, other major States, due for Assembly elections next year, are now ruled by the Congress. The BJP, as such, would be making good use of the anti-incumbency sentiment. In Rajasthan, for instance, there was widespread discontent because of the State Government's lacklustre record. Its contiguity to Gujarat will be another problem for the Congress. Himachal Pradesh, on the other hand, would find the BJP highly on the defensive — again because of the State Government's performance. The central leadership, however, will be concentrating on it, to ensure against a break in the victory line, beginning with Gujarat. Success in Himachal Pradesh could be projected as a convincing sign of a reversal of the earlier trend — of misfortunes, of defeats in a series of State elections.

The BJP, it is clear, will put increased reliance on the majority community — the talk of carrying all sections of the diverse society notwithstanding. That is its lesson from Gujarat. The BJP had tried the Hindutva slogan in the past too, but without much success. This time, it will be the aggressive variant, packaged nicely, so as to have a wide appeal. Whether or not it succeeds will depend, apart from other factors, on the effectiveness of the way of thinking of the Congress and others to counter the BJP's moves.

So far there is no firm evidence of the Congress having learnt the right lessons. There was everything wrong with the manner the Congress conducted its campaign in Gujarat. The party president, Sonia Gandhi, began her tour with worship at the Ambaji temple and, instead of presenting the people with an alternative, sought to imitate the BJP. It chose a former RSS stalwart, Shankarsingh Waghela, to head the State unit and, in that capacity, put him in charge of the campaign. It fielded just four Muslims as its candidates. The absence of Muslim leaders from among its campaigners was too conspicuous to be missed. While blaming — rightly so — the BJP for making liberal use of the communal card, the Congress could not resist the temptation of raising caste-related issues — it made ample use of what it thought was the displeasure of the dominant Patel community because of the raw deal to its leader, Keshubhai Patel, who had to make room for Mr. Modi, as the Chief Minister. Some found the party invoking the soft Hindutva, others described it as the B team of the BJP. Organisationally, the Congress was no match for the BJP, backed as it was by VHP and RSS cadres.

There is no ambiguity about the challenge posed to the secular forces, but there is nothing to suggest that a matching response has been evolved. It is a matter of concern — on both counts.

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