The Hindu : Iraqi oil fields will be prime target

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Dec 30, 2002

International

International

Iraqi oil fields will be prime target

By Atul Aneja

MANAMA (BAHRAIN) DEC. 29 . In seeking to unseat the regime of the Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein, in a possible war, the U.S. is expected to lead a campaign that will first target Iraq's oil fields. Diplomatic sources point out that the Iraqi oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk are likely to be the primary focus of a U.S. backed attack in northern Iraq.

Parallely, substantial military force is likely to descend to capture the oil-bearing area of Kozestan in South East Iraq. Preparations for an invasion from the northern front appear almost complete. With crucial military support from the U.S., Turkey is expected to spearhead the thrust from the north along with forces belonging to the ethnic Kurds and the Turkomans. Turkey, with the blessings of the United States, has, over this week held meetings with Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Talks with Masoud Barzani, the head of Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), another major Kurdish faction are also reportedly on the cards.

While details of the Turkish-Kurdish meetings have not been spelled out, diplomatic sources says that it is possible that the Kurds will no longer resist Turkey's ambition to control the oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. In return, the Kurdish enclaves will receive part of the oil revenues generated in northern Iraq. Turkey has traditionally exercised considerable influence over the Turkomans, who are Turkish speaking.

Numbering around two million, they reside in large numbers in a broad band stretching from Mosul, Kirkuk and further to the South. With a possible understanding with the Kurds now reached, Turkey is well positioned to mediate and iron out past differences between the Kurds and the Turkomans so that a broad northern front against the Iraqi regime is forged.

In time the military influence of this grouping could extend beyond the northern areas and include parts of central Iraq. Turkey's activism in arriving at an understanding with the United States to cement a possible thrust line from the north is becoming increasingly visible. Turkey, on Friday, discussed with the U.S. Treasury Undersecretary, John Taylor, and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Marc Grossman, the details of a financial package to off-set the negative economic impact of war with Iraq.

In seeking to establish control over the oil bearing Kozestan, the United States and its allies are likely to focus their attention in the areas around the lake Hawr al Hammar as well as locations such as Al Amarah and An Nasiriyah, where the Tigris and the Euphrates join. Control over the junction of the Euphrates and the Tigris can give a riverine access towards Baghdad as well as the holy cities of Najaf and Karbalah.

While the Iraqi regime is cut-off from its oil revenues, it is likely that the invading force may concentrate on Central Iraq including Baghdad. At least three military options may be available then. First, the U.S. led forces could wait in anticipation of an internal revolt within the Iraqi military that may unseat the regime of President Saddam Hussein. Alternatively, the US, which has shown all indications that it wishes to wrap up the campaign rapidly, may wish to precipitate a revolt by air dropping a large number of troops close to Baghdad. It could also consider a lightning attack by establishing a rapid link-up of its forces in the north, south-east and the west in the direction of Baghdad. Aware of the possibility that it could be isolated in the centre, the Iraqis have continued to stockpile food supplies. There have also been reports that the Iraqis have been raising physical obstructions that would discourage the U.S. to air drop troops near Baghdad and hinder the movement of advancing tanks.

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