The Hindu : France hides its iron fist in velvet gloves

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Jan 17, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

France hides its iron fist in velvet gloves

By Vaiju Naravane

Paris Jan. 16. The Chief United Nations weapons inspector Hans Blix will be in Brussels and Paris to report on the findings in Iraq.

So far Paris has played several masterly strokes, engaging in some superb diplomatic tightrope walking which has seen the emergence of President Jacques Chirac as the undisputed elder statesman in Europe. Thus President Chirac's remarks to the army, the press and the diplomatic corps have attempted to signal different messages — of reluctance and readiness, making it difficult to pinpoint how France will react in the event of unilateral action by the United States if the U.N. weapons inspectors in Iraq draw a blank.

France's main strategy so far has been to argue for time so that U.N. weapons inspectors can come up with the "smoking gun'' that would finally nail Iraq and justify a military intervention under a U.N. umbrella.

President Chirac used the traditional New Year greetings ceremonies in Paris last week, to show both, his iron fist and his velvet glove. Speaking to top army brass the President said the armed forces "had to be prepared for any eventuality''. He said the world had to pay particular attention "to the manner in which Iraq applied Resolution 1441 of the United Nations Security Council''.

Addressing the diplomatic community the same afternoon, however, the French President appeared more cautious. The disarmament of Iraq, he said, "is an obligation for the Middle East and for the rest of the world. It's a problem of collective security that has to be resolved collectively. The framework for this is that of the United Nations, the only one that is legitimate. .. The eventual decision to use force should be explicit and should be taken by the U.N. Security Council on the basis of the inspectors' report. France, therefore, retains its freedom to evaluate the situation...''

Public opinion across Europe is resolutely against an invasion of Iraq and France is taking this on board in its public responses.In a poll conducted recently, 77 per cent of the French voted against a U.S.-led offensive against Iraq. Public opinion has, in the past, played a role in shaping French foreign policy, especially where the involvement of French troops is concerned. In 1998, for example, overwhelming support for NATO action in Kosovo to protect Albanian Muslims, led to French involvement in the offensive against Serbia's then President Slobodan Milosevic.

French officials brushed aside questions about moves by certain middle eastern countries to ask Iraqi President to step down and opt for exile. What matters for France was the disarmament of Iraq. "Exile for the Iraqi President is not one of the issues we're working on. We're working on Iraq's disarmament, so it is an issue on which we have no comment. That's our position,'' said the French foreign ministry.

This point was driven home again by foreign ministry officials who laid the stress on "collective action and cooperation'' including on the part of Iraq. "It's essential we mobilize more, that everyone mobilizes more, and Iraq must be the first to do so. It's essential to ensure that the inspection regime is completely effective. The inspections are taking place in satisfactory conditions and more must be done.''

France is beginning to make a distinction between "active'' and "passive'' cooperation on the part of Iraq. What would be the consequences for Iraq if its policy of "passive cooperation'' were to continue?

``In the opinion of Mr. Blix and Mr. El Baradei, whom we support, there are grey areas in Iraq's programmes, past and present, and ambiguities in Iraqi statements. They must cooperate still more actively and do more to clarify these areas. We want to have certainties. The recourse to force would be a last resort. We've also said that the status quo in Iraq is not acceptable and that we wanted to see Iraq disarmed. There's no reason to anticipate; there is reason at every stage to ensure that the international community, every state, faces up to its responsibilities, including Iraq, in close liaison with UNMOVIC and the AIEA, '' the foreign office indicated.

The spokesperson however refused to comment when questioned on French reaction to chief weapons inspector Hans Blix's alarm at the rapid pace of the U.S. build up in the Gulf, insisting instead that the inspectors be given the necessary time to expand and deepen their investigation. Many see in this dual approach an attempt to counter U.S. unilateralism while retaining the goodwill of the Arab world.

French policy makers are worried about an unforeseen fallout in the Gulf of unilateral U.S. action, especially the fate of Saudi Arabia and the UAE and to a limited extent Egypt and Jordan.

It will be difficult for Paris to oppose U.S. military action in the Gulf especially if that is accomplished with NATO logistical support, and France has in no way ruled out the military option. That said, France will find itself in the uncomfortable position of deciding whether or not to use its veto in the U.N. Security Council in the event of a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that does not have the backing of the U.N. body. While France is keen not to antagonise the U.S. and scotch its own chances of a place in the pecking order if Iraqi oil comes under U.S. control, it is also determined to counter what it sees as U.S. hegemonistic tendencies. At the same time policy makers here are in no doubt over the need to disarm Saddam Hussain. Nor would they be averse to regime change. But that, Paris insists, must come from within and cannot be imposed from without.

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