The Hindu : Tending to the neighbourhood

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Feb 03, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Tending to the neighbourhood

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI Feb. 2. Unless there is a considered political intervention at the highest level, India is in the danger of letting its relations with Bangladesh spin out of control and becoming marginal to the incipient peace process in Nepal. As ties with these two important neighbours enter a difficult phase, India needs to come up with more political imagination and discard old diplomatic dogmas.

With the conduct of even normal diplomatic intercourse with Dhaka becoming so difficult, New Delhi is clearly exasperated. But venting anger serves no purpose. Weaker countries, ever so sensitive about their identity, can shout louder and whip up popular resentment at home.

The bold affirmation of the Deputy Prime Minister, L.K. Advani, that India will throw out illegal migrants from Bangladesh may sound good to the party faithful; but it has done more harm than good. Eviction of millions of immigrants is impossible to implement and the very feeble attempt provokes the other side into more hostile actions.

It is time for New Delhi to take a deep breath and find ways to bring the political temperature down in the ties with Dhaka. India should not let immediate irritations come in the way of realising its long-term objectives in Bangladesh.

These include the rapid development of Bangladesh, which alone can end migration from that country, its economic integration into India, and an efficient management of India's longest land border. To achieve these long-term strategic objectives, India must demonstrate extraordinary patience and tactical flexibility in the short term.

Instead of waiting for political gestures from Bangladesh to implement the many good ideas that are floating in the capital about transforming relations with Dhaka, New Delhi should take the initiative to resume political contact at the Foreign Ministers' level, initiate steps to calm things down on the border, and move economic cooperation forward.

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Since King Gyanendra threw out the elected government and took charge in Nepal last October, relations between New Delhi and Kathmandu have cooled off. While India genuinely wants to preserve the balance between the constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy in Nepal, it might be losing focus on the more urgent challenge of defeating the Maoist threat.

The tentative Indian response to the ceasefire between the government and the Maoists last week reveals deep concerns in New Delhi about the manner in which the peace process is being handled in Kathmandu. Equally important, New Delhi is uncomfortable with the growing international involvement in the civil war within Nepal.

New Delhi needs to shed its untenable expectations that the world can be kept out of Nepal and that the problems in Kathmandu can be resolved purely in a bilateral framework with India.

If New Delhi is clear on its objectives in Nepal — ending the Maoist insurgency and the restoration of democratic politics at the earliest — it could leverage the international interest to promote them. Extra-regional involvement has helped move the peace process forward in Sri Lanka; it could do the same in Nepal. The diplomatic challenge for India lies in leading the international involvement in Nepal rather than undermining it.

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While India's problems mount in the region, its diplomacy in the extended neighbourhood is making rapid gains. The full significance of the recent visit to India by the President of Iran, Syed Mohammad Khatami, was revealed in the External Affairs Minister, Yashwant Sinha's travels in Central Asia.

In both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Mr. Sinha was touting the importance of the Indo-Iranian agreements on the development of the Chah Bahar port in Iran and transport links to landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics. Having overcome the Pakistan barrier in gaining access to these nations, India is poised to expand its political and economic presence in inner Asia.

That the Khatami visit has generated ripples across the region is reflected in the speculation in the Pakistani media that India is seeking a military base in Chah Bahar. New Delhi has rubbished these reports and Iran is too proud to give bases to external powers. Equally baseless has been the speculation about Indo-Iranian defence cooperation. Contrary to reports, no defence agreements were signed when the Chief of Indian Naval Staff, Admiral Madhavendra Singh, visited Tehran two weeks ago.

During Mr. Khatami's visit, the two sides agreed to cooperate in military education and training and initiate high-level defence exchanges. India and Iran can be said to have begun mere defence diplomacy; there is a very long way to go before they can think of substantive military cooperation.

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Even before the first shots in the latest Gulf War have been fired, there is a political casualty — the idea of European political unity. By splitting three countries from the east (Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic), three from the south (Italy, Spain and Portugal) and Denmark from the north, the Anglo-American powers have undermined the Franco-German political alliance opposing the war in Iraq.

It has been fashionable in Europe to proclaim that balance of power politics is dead. But Washington and London have shown that a variant of the 19th century strategy still remains valid in Europe. Many smaller European countries continue prefer the guiding hand of the distant superpower to the overlordship of regional bosses — France and Germany.

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