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The Columbia mystery

THE SINGLE LEADING theory for the disintegration of the Columbia has been somewhat discounted with NASA investigators now exploring a welter of different hypotheses that might explain the disaster. The U.S. space agency has not totally ruled out that foam debris could have damaged the space shuttle's wing during take-off, but has made it clear that this is an unlikely cause for the Columbia's fiery descent, as a growing number of facts militate against this theory. By saying that they are looking into every possible cause for the accident, what NASA investigators are tacitly admitting is that, at this juncture, the disintegration of the Columbia is a total mystery. The chunk of insulation foam that struck the shuttle during lift-off is now regarded as unlikely to have harmed it, being too light and flaky to have seriously damaged the heat-resistant tiles on the Columbia's outer surface. Computer programmes failed to show that insulation foam could cause such damage under lift-off conditions; moreover, information received from the Columbia's sensors did not reflect the extreme temperatures that would have been necessary to melt the shuttle's exterior during its fatal re-entry.

So, what is NASA looking at now? There are a large number of competing theories but no hint yet of a firm lead that could throw up the answer to what destroyed the Columbia. Among the various alternatives is the possibility that the space shuttle was hit by a tiny meteorite, causing enough damage to prevent the craft from holding out against the heat during re-entry; a picture shot by an amateur photographer which shows the shuttle being hit by a coloured bolt of light has enlarged the interest in this theory. Other hypotheses include excessive turbulence during re-entry and small explosions set off within the craft, but, as NASA seems to admit, none of the available theories is able to account for all the evidence under the scrutiny of the investigators. Different teams are sifting through different layers of information that may turn up that critical piece of evidence that sheds some light on the mystery. One difficulty is that although a considerable amount of debris has been recovered, some of the shuttle parts considered critical for the investigation still remain to be found. However, the recent recovery of a section of the left wing, the most significant find yet, holds promise for providing clues to the break-up.

Under prodding from the Congress, NASA has formally transferred the authority of the investigation of the shuttle disaster to an independent review board and has agreed to add members to this panel who have no ties with the space agency. Such a move will increase the credibility of the investigation; fears over NASA's objectivity in handling a probe of this kind have already been expressed publicly and handing it over to an independent panel should stave off any apprehensions of a possible cover-up. Getting to the bottom of what happened has critical implications for the U.S. space programme. All the shuttles have been grounded and how soon they will be back in the air again depends on how quickly the investigators determine what happened to the Columbia. The immediate future of the U.S. space programme is tied to the shuttles and the International Space Station. The future of the ISS is in peril because it is built around the shuttles, the only spacecraft capable of hauling large and heavy loads to the space station. NASA insists the shuttles will never be permanently grounded but the question is how long it will be before the necessary confidence is restored to put them back into operation. The answer to this is far from clear for the moment, but it will depend on what the investigators identify as the reason the Columbia went down.

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