The Hindu : Rethinking India's Gulf strategy

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Feb 12, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Rethinking India's Gulf strategy

By C. Raja Mohan

MUSCAT Feb. 11. As the kingdoms of the Gulf region brace themselves for a war they do not like but cannot prevent, influential sections of the establishment here would like to know if India has a long-term strategy to expand its political and economic influence in the region.

The widespread receptivity in the region for a more active Indian role in the region, it is tinged with a frustration that India takes its friends for granted and that New Delhi's attention to the Arab kingdoms of the Gulf is either sporadic or limited to a narrow basket of issues.

As they prepare for the consequences of an inevitable American war against Iraq in the next few weeks, the Gulf States are aware that the old ways of doing political business in the region cannot be sustained for too long. There is an acute awareness here that the war against Iraq and the creation of a new State in Iraq will make the U.S. presence in the region deeper and more enduring.

Meanwhile, the region is moving towards economic integration and developing a strategy to deal with globalisation. Earlier this year, the six nations — Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain — that constitute the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have launched a customs union and are working towards a single currency and a free trade area.

India's assertion of its interests in Gulf, that include energy security, economic cooperation and political stability and its potential role in the region are not matched by a sustained engagement.

As the Gulf heads towards a major political and economic transformation, correcting that gap must be a high priority for Indian diplomacy once the current crisis in Iraq is resolved.

While America's longstanding allies in Europe are drifting away on the approach to Iraq, its regional partners in the Arab Gulf are lining up behind Washington in its final showdown with Baghdad.

The American effort to mobilise the support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation for Turkey, the northern launch pad for American attack on Iraq, have been stymied by France, Germany and Belgium. But here in the Gulf, the GCC leadership has agreed to send troops to Kuwait, from where the American military thrust into Iraq from the south will be initiated.

Although the Europeans might prevent a U.N. consensus behind the American war against Baghdad, the neighbours of Iraq, who matter a lot more in the present crisis, are ready to join the United States.

Unlike the Europeans, the Gulf Kingdoms have little time for abstract arguments on international law and the procedures of the United Nations Security Council. They are far more sensitive to considerations of power and the consequences of use of force.

Having never been political fans of Saddam Hussein, and recognising the determination in Washington to engineer regime change in Baghdad, the Gulf states who depend on the U.S. for their security are carefully walking the tight rope. They have few options.

*** The complex position of the Gulf Arabs in the current crisis is put across in a sophisticated manner by the minister state for foreign affairs of Oman, Yusuf bin Alawi. The articulate Mr. Alawi told visiting Indian reporters that the decision to send troops to Kuwait "is part of our obligation'' under the collective security arrangements among the GCC nations.

This does not mean the Gulf states want a war. Mr. Alawi makes it clear that "none of us want to see a war taking place''. He also expresses the widespread apprehensions in the region that the war might create more problems than it solves. Mr. Alawi was also not hopeful that Saddam Hussein could be persuaded to go into exile.

Mr. Alawi said the GCC hopes the problem could yet be peacefully resolved under the U.N. auspices. Would the GCC support a unilateral American military action in Iraq? Mr. Alawi says the GCC "will never be part of it''. Would that lead to withdrawing the military bases most Gulf States have at present offered the United States?

Not really. The Gulf states might continue to provide "military facilities'' to the U.S. but will not politically associate themselves with the unilateral American action against Iraq.

The military facilities given to the United States are not just about the crisis in Iraq, "but are part of a broader strategic outlook'' based on the security considerations of the Gulf states, Mr. Alawi says.

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Opinion

Stories in this Section

A shortsighted approach

Enforce better standards

Sovereignty and the Naga issue

Crime & punishment in cyberspace

Rethinking India's Gulf strategy

Politics of defection

Honouring Kalpana

Pesticides in water