The Hindu : India's forward policy

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Feb 22, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

India's forward policy

By C. Raja Mohan

KABUL Feb. 21. The extraordinary warmth for India visible here from the street to the palace is only matched by New Delhi's unprecedented diplomatic activism in Afghanistan. For the first time since the Partition of the Subcontinent, India is poised to contribute significantly to the political and economic development of Afghanistan.

India has always enjoyed good relations with Afghanistan, but there was very little it could do other than extending a bit of technical assistance. The lack of geographic access and the absence of economic instruments severely limited India's ability to play any credible role in the neighbouring nation.

When Afghanistan became the final battleground in the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, India tended to tail Soviet policy rather than develop its own independent profile in Afghanistan. When Pakistan gained control over Afghanistan through the Taliban in the mid- 1990s, India was completely marginalised.

With four consulates in Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat, and Mazar-e-Sharif, besides the embassy here in Kabul, India's diplomatic reach has never been as expansive in Afghanistan as it is today. More significantly, India is in a position to pursue its own interests in Afghanistan.

Excellent political relations with the new leaders of Kabul, a range of programmes for humanitarian relief, building of infrastructure, training of human resources for basic functions of state, and the prospect for largescale economic cooperation have come to define India's "forward policy" in Afghanistan.

The notion of a forward policy is part of the great debate in the 19th century about British Indian security. A "Forward School" demanded political activism across the frontiers to ensure the security of Calcutta. The "Closed Border School", in contrast, wanted to avoid costly and entangling involvements outside the borders and focused on territorial defence.

Independent India's policy in its extended neighbourhood increasingly resembled the approach of the "Closed Border School". The post-Partition limits on geography, insular economic policies and quixotic non-alignment that focused on global issues robbed India's regional policy of any substantive economic and political content. If the Forward School in the past focused on security, India's current forward policy in Afghanistan is essentially about trade and mutual prosperity. It is focused on gaining physical access through Iran, creating conditions for an economic presence in Kabul and helping Afghanistan become a hub of trade in the region that includes Central Asia.

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The new opportunities for Indo-Afghan economic cooperation will be showcased by the preferential trade agreement to be signed when the Afghanistan President, Hamid Karzai, arrives here for talks next week.

India is expected to waive all duties on certain types of dry fruits and precious stones from Afghanistan. In return, India will get duty free access for tea, medicines and other items. Both sides are also likely to offer substantive duty reduction on many other commodities.

As it seeks to promote the private sector at home and gain access to markets world wide, Afghanistan has also put in place preferential trade arrangements with the U. S., the European Union and Japan.

With international attention devoted to the economic development of this nation as never before, for the Afghan leaders "it is now or never" to build a secure economic and political future for their people.

Afghanistan has approved more investment proposals in the last year than in the previous 45 years. It also hopes that foreign investment will flow in quickly. While Indian business has shown some interest, actual investments are yet to be made.

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While it is basking in the goodwill of the Afghan people, India is aware that it has to move forward cautiously. Afghan leaders say they are grateful for Indian support in the past and acknowledge that New Delhi never sought to manipulate them for short-term gains.

Ordinary people here are quick to express their positive sentiment for India while holding Pakistan responsible for the civil wars and mayhem of the last two decades. But India is determined to avoid any impression that its activism here is in any way tied to its own problems with Pakistan.

The long border between Afghanistan and Pakistan makes Islamabad always an important player in Afghanistan. The current distrust between the two countries is deep, and Pakistan has no one to blame but itself.

If Islamabad looks at its own long-term interests and sheds its barely concealed hostility to Kabul, it could move towards liberal trading arrangements between land-locked Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. All three nations and the region will stand to gain from such an arrangement.

India is in the happy situation that its interests coincide with those of the Afghan people in building a strong, independent and prosperous nation here. However, India is also aware of its limitations in transforming Afghanistan. Working with the international community is the key to the realisation of India's objectives of political stability and economic development of Afghanistan.

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