The Hindu : Non-proliferation in East Asia

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Feb 25, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

Non-proliferation in East Asia

THE U.S. SECRETARY of State, Colin Powell, has the unenviable task of persuading East Asian allies to take a coordinated approach towards the goal of ending North Korea's efforts to acquire a nuclear weapons capability at a time when Washington itself has not been able to evolve a firm plan for achieving this objective. Mr. Powell — who is currently on a visit to Japan, China and South Korea — has underscored the consensual view that Pyongyang must be made to abandon its nuclear ambitions, but while he favours a multilateral approach most countries in the region prefer that the U.S. deal directly with North Korea. In Mr. Powell's view, the initiation of discussions at a multilateral forum could have a multiplier effect and would also add strength to any obligations that Pyongyang might take on itself as a result of the talks. The other countries of East Asia however believe that North Korea has reactivated its nuclear programme in order to pressure Washington to deal with it as a legitimate international actor (and not a part of an Axis of Evil), to derive economic benefits and, of course, to ensure its own security. Beijing and Seoul have looked with favour on Pyongyang's demand that Washington must agree to a non-aggression pact and initiate a bilateral dialogue. The reluctance of the East Asian Governments to commit themselves to a multilateral format is understandable in a context in which the U.S. administration, a necessary participant in such talks, is divided over the approach that should be taken.

While Mr. Powell has insisted that Pyongyang end its nuclear weapons programme before Washington initiates any contacts, he at least represents a minority within the U.S. administration that does not reject the idea of talks altogether. Mr. Powell has hinted that Washington could revive what was described as a "bold approach" of considering an array of measures to assist North Korea once this basic condition was met. During his stay in the region, Mr. Powell is likely to announce that the U.S. would provide increased food assistance to North Korea and though he took pains to explain that Washington did not use such aid as a political tool, there is clearly a hope that Pyongyang would respond to this gesture by taking some positive measures of its own. To most others in the higher echelons of the U. S. administration, even the promise that talks will be held if the basic condition is met takes on the complexion of a reward for Pyongyang's bad behaviour. While they advocate a tougher approach, there is a widespread realisation that the military option is not as viable in this context (as it may be in respect of Iraq) because North Korea's conventional capabilities are sufficient to cause severe harm to U.S. military personnel posted in the region as well as to the allies. However, it is also doubtful whether the U. S. administration has seriously and consistently applied its mind to the North Korean issue given its preoccupation with the preparations for a campaign against Iraq.

It is indeed ironic that Washington should be preparing to attack Iraq, even though Baghdad's capabilities in the weapons of mass destruction field are unproven, while doing so much less to deal with the nuclear weapon capability that North Korea has itself declared it has. In comparing Washington's two antagonists while the two situations are different in many ways, the one factor that starkly stands out is that Iraq has oil while North Korea does not and this in turn erodes the U.S. claim that Baghdad has attracted special hostility because it is ruled by a dangerous dictator who possesses lethal weapons. But while the legitimacy of U.S. motivations can be questioned, Mr. Powell's East Asian interlocutors must insist that Washington explore all creative options to achieve the nuclear non-proliferation goals that are pertinent to their region.

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