The Hindu : The Northeast after the polls

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Mar 06, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

The Northeast after the polls

By Wasbir Hussain

The February 26 polls in Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya passed off rather peacefully... but the impact of the verdict could well be turbulent.

WITH LESS than a dozen poll-related deaths and a voter turnout of more than 70 per cent, the February 26 elections in three States in the Northeast — Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya — can well be described as an exercise that ended peacefully. While the mandates in Tripura and Nagaland clearly reflect the impact of intricate local politics, the lack of any issue with a Statewide appeal has once again resulted in a fractured verdict in Meghalaya.

The Left Front, led by the CPI(M), performed a hattrick in Tripura, winning the elections three times in a row since 1993. With 41 seats in its kitty, the Left Front gave a drubbing to the opposition Congress and its tribal ally, the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT), which together bagged just 19 seats in the 60-member State Assembly.

In Nagaland, the Congress that had been ruling the State for a decade, was voted out. Although it emerged as the single largest party with 21 seats, the Naga People's Front (NPF) with its individual tally of 19 and the backing of other parties, including seven BJP legislators, has managed to unseat the Congress heavyweight S.C. Jamir. In the absence of a clear majority for any party, a Congress-led coalition headed by D.D. Lapang assumed office in Meghalaya on Tuesday. The six-party Meghalaya Democratic Alliance has cobbled together a tally of 42 in the 60-member House, with the Congress having 22 members of its own.

The Left's sweep in Tripura clearly indicates that it was a vote against violence and terrorism. The Left's only opposition was the Congress. But, the Congress' tie-up with the INPT turned out to be a suicidal pact. This is because the INPT is accused of being directly backed by the outlawed National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), a charge that the former obviously seeks to deny. The CPI(M) told voters to imagine the situation that could emerge in the State if the Congress-INPT combine were to come to power. Since the poll schedule was announced on January 11, as many as 45 CPI(M) cadres or supporters were killed in armed attacks most of which were said to have been carried out by the NLFT hit-squads.

A look at the INPT's background may not be out of place here. In May 2000, a rag-tag political party called the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT) won the little-noticed elections to the 28-member Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC), an administrative structure established in 1982 to cater to the interests of the State's dwindling tribal population. The element of news here was that the IPFT, according to media and police reports, could oust the CPI(M) from the local tribal administrative body with the alleged backing of the NLFT, a dreaded tribal separatist group, fighting for an independent tribal homeland outside India. Late last year, the IPFT and another tribal party, the Tripura Upajati Juba Samity (TUJS), merged to form the INPT.

As the Tripura Chief Minister, Manik Sarkar, said after leading the Left Front to victory: "The results have been on expected lines. The Congress entered into a unholy alliance with the INPT, backed by an outlawed rebel group that operates from bases in Bangladesh with the assistance of Pakistan's ISI." Charges aside, the Left Front won largely because of fear amongst the State's majority non-tribal Bengali population of a rise in militancy if a non-Left combine with the backing of a party with tribal aspirations came to power. This is not to suggest that the Left Front has been able to contain the violent insurgency in Tripura.

In Nagaland, the Congress lost mainly because the BJP and its newly formed local allies, such as the NPF, managed to hijack the Naga issue. Leaders of the BJP and the NPF took credit for giving the much-needed push to the Naga peace efforts, saying that it was only due to the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee's direct intervention that the NSCN(IM) leaders, Isak Chishi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah, could come over to New Delhi to carry the peace negotiations forward. That such a campaign worked was reflected in the BJP making not just an entry in Nagaland politics, but doing so in style, winning as many as seven seats. The BJP's entry in a State where Christians constitute more than 90 per cent of the population is indeed significant.

The BJP would now be part of the NPF-led Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) Government in the State, but things may not be rosy for the new regime. The road to peace in Nagaland could now be more thorny than before. Mr. Jamir has accused the NSCN(IM) of threatening and intimidating Congress supporters during the polls, besides indulging in booth capturing on polling day. If the NSCN(IM) had indeed threatened Mr. Jamir or the Congress, the rival NSCN faction headed by S.S. Khaplang has dropped a bombshell after the election results were announced.

The rebel group said 17 legislators, 10 from the NPF and seven from the BJP, are already on their hit-list. "The 17 legislators would be our hot targets if they dare to enter areas dominated by us. We would like to make it clear to the NPF and BJP legislators not to create problems for us and not to go against the aspirations of the Naga people," K. Mulatonu, NSCN(K) publicity chief, has been quoted as saying in an interview. Mr. Jamir would like to deny that he is soft towards the NSCN(K), but he is firm in his conviction that a lasting solution to the Naga problem cannot be found by New Delhi by talking only to the NSCN(IM). The intra-group rivalry among the Naga rebel factions could well intensify in the days to come.

Meghalaya has a history of fractured verdicts. As many as six Governments, with four different Chief Ministers, ruled the State since the Assembly polls in 1998. Whether the veteran Congressman, D.D. Lapang, who is currently heading the six-party coalition, can reverse this trend remains to be seen.

Two important developments needs to be noted: one is the winning of two seats by the Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (KHNAM), a new political party with strong local aspirations, floated last year by the erstwhile leaders of the powerful Khasi Students' Union (KSU). The KHNAM's decision to join the Congress-led coalition is also significant. Its leader and former KSU chief, Paul Lyngdoh, has been given a cabinet berth by Mr. Lapang. The other notable feature of this election in Meghalaya has been the indications about the marginalisation of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader and former Lok Sabha Speaker, P.A. Sangma, in State politics. The NCP could manage to win just 14 seats, and, therefore, only put up a feeble bid for power.

If the February 26 polls in these three States had passed off rather peacefully, what with an estimated 150,000 security personnel standing guard, the impact of the verdict could well be turbulent. If the NSCN(IM) and the NSCN(K) decide to engage in a turf war, in the process supporting or opposing their favoured political groupings in Nagaland, in Tripura the NLFT could turn the heat on the Left Front. And, in Meghalaya, of course, Mr. Lapang cannot afford to sit tight. After all, no one can assure him that there will be no bid to topple the Government in his State this time round.

(The writer is Associate Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi)

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Opinion

Stories in this Section

Brazen abuse of power

The next stage

Tolerance and exclusion

The Northeast after the polls