The Hindu : Poll perspectives

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Monday, Mar 10, 2003

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By K. K. Katyal

The Himachal Pradesh verdict would have served a useful purpose if it corrects the lopsidedness in the political discourse and the electoral politics introduced by Gujarat.

WHAT IS the meaning of the Himachal Pradesh poll verdict? And what are the pointers thrown by it for the near future — for the Assembly contests in four States in November and the general election next year? These questions exercise political pundits and common citizens and will continue to do so in the coming months. In finding answers, a simplistic, shallow approach needs to be avoided. Tiny Himachal Pradesh has cast a long shadow over the country's political scene. The implications will be far-reaching.

The BJP victory in Gujarat was widely interpreted as marking the party's resurgence, as the end to its woes, caused by a series of debacles in the Assembly polls. Its spokespersons and supporters as also its opponents drew some hasty conclusions for the future. Before the Gujarat polls, the BJP was highly demoralised and for good reasons — it was in power in just two States. The success in Gujarat gave the BJP the much-needed confidence. That was perfectly in order but the party was wrong in assuming that Gujarat would be repeated in Himachal Pradesh — on the strength of the Hindutva agenda, including the revived interested in the Ayodhya temple issue. It was this factor that weighed with it in commissioning the Gujarat hero, Narendra Modi, to campaign for the party and he, of course, unleashed in full measure the rhetoric used by him in Gujarat.

If the BJP leadership, in the State and at the Centre, was guilty of this miscalculation, vast sections of the lay public, too, formed highly erroneous opinions. Some even speculated on the possibility of the BJP seeking to advance the general election, normally due before the first week of October 2004. The Delhi-based foreign diplomats were quick to pick this up. The line of reasoning was — that Gujarat represented the reversal of the BJP's misfortunes, that its victory run had started, that first it would retain Himachal Pradesh and later snatch some of the four States, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi, from the Congress in the November poll. The BJP high command would thus be tempted to cash in on the pro-Hindutva emotions without losing time, lest they subside and deprive the party of a major advantage.

This set of arguments was fallacious on various counts. It did not factor in the ground reality in Himachal Pradesh and sought to apply the doctrine of Hindutva-related automaticity to the other four States. The BJP may well be able to snatch one or two States from the Congress but even that highly optimistic estimate would not be enough for it to take the plunge at the Centre and run the risk of cutting short its term by a few months. An early general election could well be ruled out — unless the BJP, performing a miracle, wins in all the four States. This is an unlikely case-scenario.

Himachal Pradesh offers useful lessons to both the BJP and the Congress. To the Congress — there is life after Hindutva. To the BJP, Hindutva could be a double-edged weapon which could hurt its wielder. The Congress, which had panicked over the seeming ascendancy of Hindutva and chose to opt for its soft variant, can feel heartened that other issues too matter. The BJP would do well to realise that Hindutva did not help it in Himachal Pradesh as against other pressing issues which would have to be addressed in the future.

There is no ambiguity about the factors that led to the BJP's rout there. Its bid to replicate Gujarat failed because, one, there was no symbol, no focal point of communal animosities, that could be used to arouse passions and two, the number of Muslims is very small and, as such, could not be portrayed as posing a threat to the majority community. Neither "Mian Musharraf" nor the threat of terrorism found any appeal there. In its obsession with "Modi-tva", in Himachal Pradesh the BJP ignored matters that exercised the people the most — problems of corruption, lack of development, unemployment and mis-governance. While it made much of the factional rivalries in the Congress (between the two top leaders, Veerbhadra Singh and Vidya Stokes), it turned a blind eye to the acute factionalism in its own backyard. The animosity between the Chief Minister, P.K. Dhumal, and one of his predecessors and currently a Central Minister, Shanta Kumar, was an open secret. The BJP leaders in New Delhi could not be unaware of it and yet they did precious little to bring them together. Their rivalries were reflected in the campaign and at the polling stage. Then there was a strong pro-Dhumal lobby operating among those dealing with Himachal Pradesh at the Centre. Because of this, his acts of omission and commission did not attract sufficient notice in New Delhi. On his part, Mr. Shanta Kumar did play his factional role to the "best" of his ability, but he hit the nail on the head when, after the announcement of results, he ascribed the BJP defeat to the State Government's mis-performance. He was now sought to be made a scapegoat. Actually, the malaise is deeper.

The significance of the Himachal Pradesh verdict in the national context is not fully realised. Gujarat, it was clear, was an exception, the product of unusual situations, and that it did not admit of any generalisation. Likewise, Himachal Pradesh was a case by itself and the trends thrown up by it may not necessarily be replicated in all or most of the States due for the polls in November. The BJP may still use the Hindutva card, especially in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan but may not put total reliance on it. It could well exploit the anti-incumbency factor to the hilt against the rulers there. The Congress has, therefore, its agenda cut out — on the one hand, it has to try to neutralise the BJP's Hindutva appeal. But more important, it will need to shift the focus to economic issues and governance. Given the mixed record of its Governments, this may not be easy but is worth addressing. The Himachal Pradesh verdict would have served a useful purpose if it corrects the lopsidedness in the political discourse and the electoral politics introduced by Gujarat. This is more important than the victory or defeat of the parties and individuals.

There was another significant feature of the electoral battle in the hill State which has not attracted enough attention. The demise of the Sukh Ram phenomenon. The regional outfit floated by him has been decimated. This worthy objective was achieved not by the conscious efforts of political parties and their leaders but despite them. Both the Congress and the BJP tried to strike deals with him at various stages. As a matter of fact, their conduct, in the pursuit of power, exposed them to charges of hypocrisy and double-dealing. Here was a person who came to symbolise corruption of the highest order in public life — when he was a Minister in the Congress Government at the Centre. The BJP, then in the Opposition, disrupted almost an entire winter session of Parliament, while insisting on severe action against him. Five years ago, the same BJP sought — and got — his help in capturing power in Himachal Pradesh. By then, he had moved over to the State politics and in the previous Assembly elections, managed to get a few of his supporters elected. Theirs was a crucial position in the hung Assembly and, as part of a deal they cast their lot with the BJP.

In the run-up to the recent poll, it was the Congress that tried for an electoral arrangement with him (an alliance or seat adjustment). The negotiations failed because the Congress found the price, demanded by him, too high. Has he been conclusively and finally rejected by the mainstream parties in the State? Or could he, sometime in the future, emerge as a force to be courted by one side or the other? Knowing the ways of politicians, one cannot be sure.

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