Tuesday, Mar 11, 2003
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By Vaiju Naravane
Ahead of Tuesday's crucial vote in the United Nations Security Council, France is making a final offensive to convince wavering non-permanent African members of the Council — Angola Cameroon and Guinea — to join forces with those opposing a second resolution on Iraq that would give the Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, until March 17 to disarm. Mr. de Villepin told reporters after his discussions with the Angolan President that the use of force against Iraq would be "paradoxical and contradictory'' in the present context of successful ongoing inspections. But Mr. Dos Santos, who is also under intense pressure from the Americans, gave no hint of which way his country would vote in Tuesday's debate in the Security Council. In a statement, the Angolan Foreign Minister, Joao Bernardo de Miranda, declared: "War is inevitable. What the international community needs to do now is prepare for what comes after the war.'' Angola is slowly emerging from a 27-year-old civil war that pitted the country's socialist Government against U.S.-backed rebels. The country's oil wells and infrastructure were completely destroyed in the conflict. The U.S. has promised help to rebuild Angola's shattered economy, revitalise its oil industry and write off a large percentage of its $10-billion foreign debt. Tempted by promises of massive U.S. aid, Portuguese-speaking Angola, which does not have significant links with France, will probably side with "the coalition of the willing'' in the war against Iraq, despite the fact that like Cameroon or Guinea, it too signed a declaration pleading for continued inspections during the Franco-African summit held in Paris on February 21. Guinea and Cameroon are likely to prove more amenable to French persuasion. Cameroon's President, Paul Biya, has close links with Paris and the French President, Jacques Chirac, that go back many years. Paris is also likely to secure the Cameroon vote with a substantial aid package. Guinea has had troubled relations with the French with the former Guinean President standing up to French neo-colonialism in the 60s. However, Guinea could side with the French because 90 per cent of its population is Muslim. The country depends on Washington for debt relief and it is expected that France will offer whatever Washington has offered to pay. It could be swayed by French promises to lobby on its behalf for increased Guinean exports to the E.U. The battle lines are clearly drawn as France prepares to defy the U.S.-led anti-Saddam coalition. France is clearly in a dilemma. Reports suggest that the U.S. President, George W. Bush, has persuaded his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, not to use Russia's veto in the Security Council. Intense pressure on Mexico, Chile and Pakistan, all three directly in America's sphere of influence, could get the pro-war faction positive votes. The vote now clearly hangs by Guinea and Cameroon. Both may succumb to U.S. pressure. If Russia and China abstain, France will be in a very isolated position and would be reluctant to use its veto against the rest of the Security Council. The U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, on Sunday warned France that any attempt to block tomorrow's resolution would have unpleasant consequences for that country. This could mean diplomatic manoeuvres to strip France of its veto by reshaping and reforming the Security Council, far-reaching changes in NATO, an embargo against the supply of high technology components for the manufacture of satellites and similar products and a U.S. boycott of French exports. Mr. Chirac will address the nation late on Monday in an attempt to explain his position on Iraq.
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