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Grim times ahead

AS AN UNNECESSARY and unjust war — which is likely to entail a horrendous loss of life as well as other consequences that would haunt the world for years to come — is about to be unleashed by the U.S. on Iraq, it is essential that the Governments and the people who have opposed it not lose their moral authority and continue to warn against this disastrous course. The aggression against Iraq, which could begin at any moment, is being launched on blatantly false premises, in contravention of all international norms, for perceptible ulterior motives and with an intent to overawe the world with the might of the hyper-power. It will shred the principle of the sovereignty of nations which has provided the only reasonable basis for a stable world order and it will so churn an already turbulent region that the rage seething therein will spill far and wide. With Iraq's President, Saddam Hussein, having rejected out of hand the U.S. fiat that he and his sons surrender power and seek exile and with Washington fixated on initiating an attack at a time of its own choosing, a tidal wave of high explosives could soon hammer down on the people of Iraq. Iraq's armed forces will probably not be able to withstand the assault for long but the invasion will almost certainly involve combat in built-up urban centres and, thereby, a high rate of civilian casualties. No great faith can be placed in the U.S. promises that it will do what it can to contain the bitterness and rage that will be caused, by helping the Iraqis to re-build their state and society that they can look forward to a prosperous and democratic future. What is more likely to happen, once the armed power of the U.S. has smashed a regime that has thus far held an extremely fractious Iraq together, is the outbreak of ferocious strife within the country exacerbated by the ambitions of covetous neighbours.

While the combined efforts of France, Russia, Germany and China — backed up by the overwhelming majority of global opinion — might not have been enough to avert the war it is absolutely necessary that they maintain their laudable and principled opposition to unilateralist aggression. The leaderships of these countries have laid out, in extenso, their arguments against a war on Iraq at this juncture and though they might have failed to achieve their immediate objective they must emphasise the principles they have delineated in the process so that the ground norms of multilateralism can be re-established on firmer basis. This is not the moment for the rest of the global community to be seized by a mood of resignation over its incapacity to restrain the U.S. from following its rogue impulses. Instead, the global community must take the positivist view that its opposition to the war, though it was not fully concerted, did have the effect of delaying the conflict and therefore the more coordinated efforts that can be mounted in the future could be more effective. The four countries above-named do have the weight in international affairs to form the core of a wider coalition that can offer a sufficient counter-weight to the hyper-power.

The need to demonstrate that the power of the U.S. can be balanced out is all the more necessary at a juncture when the war against Iraq could easily assume the nature of a conflict between civilisations. For all the unease that many in the Islamic world might feel about Mr. Hussein, the destruction of Iraq by the forces of the West would be regarded foremost as a civilisational assault once his regime is no longer on the scene. The sacking of Baghdad by the Mongols in the 13th Century still remains as an epochal event in the historiography of the Islamic world as does the fact that Islam ultimately triumphed as an ideology through the conversion of the barbarian hordes. An attack on Iraq, at a time when the Islamic world believes it has gone through a very rough period, could revive the memories of past glories and a fervent reaffirmation of the ideology that made it possible.

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