The Hindu : The northern mis-alliance

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Mar 20, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

The northern mis-alliance

By C. Raja Mohan

In any war it is important to have friends. But if your friends can't stand each other, their quarrels could play right into the hands of your enemy. The U.S. finds itself in such a complex situation in northern Iraq on the eve of its military invasion to oust the regime of Saddam Hussein.

The U.S. plans had called for a northern military thrust into Iraq from Turkey along with a massive southern foray from Kuwait. Conflicting territorial claims, ethnic rivalries, and the struggle for the control of oil resources in northern Iraq have presented a political minefield for the Bush administration.

At the centre of the impending war in the north are two cities — Kirkuk and Mosul — which might fall quickly from the Iraqi forces. But the U.S. must prevent a fight among its friends (Turkey and various Kurdish factions) for the control of these cities. It must also deter its adversaries beyond Iraq (Syria and Iran) from joining this ``war within the war''.

The Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, has over the decades used the contradictions among the Kurds and their fights with the states across the region to control northern Iraq. He has also encouraged the settlement of Arabs from the south in Kurdish areas. He is betting that the chaos following his retreat from the north could undermine the U.S. occupation.

The Kurds, who are ethnically non-Arab, are spread across Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. They have long fought for their political rights in all these states and have dreamt of a homeland of their own for nearly a century. They feel oppressed everywhere but are also deeply divided.

After the Gulf war in 1991, the Iraqi Kurds have enjoyed autonomy for the first time in decades in northern Iraq under the protection of the international community. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdish Democratic Party, often rivals, are now well entrenched in their respective territories. Kurds are happy to join the war against Mr. Hussein and unite northern Iraq under their control.

Kirkuk is also rich in oil resources and is believed to hold nearly a third of the large Iraqi reserves. Controlling the oil resources, Kurds know, will finance the construction of their homeland.

It was not mere popular Turkish opposition to the war in Iraq that has forced Ankara to delay the granting of access to the U.S. troops that was vital for the northern invasion. Turkey's extended bargain with the U.S. over access has been about protecting its political interests in northern Iraq in the post-Saddam phase.

Ankara, fighting Kurdish separatism at home, has no desire to see the emergence of an independent homeland for Kurds in northern Iraq. It does not even relish a loose confederation in Iraq which could stimulate similar demands in Turkey.

Turkey, which conducts cross-border raids in Northern Iraq in its war against Kurdish separatists, has insisted on its right to send its troops along with the Americans into northern Iraq. If Turkey sends in its forces, Syria and Iran might not hold back from sending their own. Iraqi Shia militias backed by Iran are already operating in Kurdish areas.

Turkish nationalists also nurse a grievance that in creating Iraq at the end of the war from the remnants of the Ottoman empire, the British had cheated Ankara out of the oil rich Kirkuk region. Allied with Turkey in northern Iraq is the small Turkoman community which sees Kirkuk as homeland and would not want either Arab settlers or Kurds dominate the area after the overthrow of Mr. Hussein.

As the U.S. negotiated with Turkey for access, the Kurds were furious and declared that they will first fight Turkish troops if they entered northern Iraq. When Ankara delayed the deal, the U.S. opened talks with Kurdish forces about participating in the war against the Iraqi forces. This in turn brought Ankara back to the negotiating table.

The U.S. special envoy to Iraqi opposition, Zalmay Khalilzad, is trying to negotiate a framework to manage the disputes Turkey and the Kurdish and other groups in northern Iraq and avoid a zero-sum game between Kurds and Turks.

The essence of the agreement is that no one group will make an independent bid to capture Kirkuk and Mosul and let the U.S. forces take charge.

The Kurdish militias have agreed to operate under the U.S. command. Mr. Khalilzad is also trying to get assurances from Turkey that it will not intervene separately in northern Iraq.

A joint commission involving all groups will resolve disputes in northern Iraq is likely to be set up. As an Afghan-American and a key player in U.S. war against the Taliban, Mr. Khalilzad knows how much more complex the challenge in Iraq is. He is aware agreements made before war are not always kept when the shooting starts and the scramble for territorial control begins.

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