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War turning out to be a long haul

By Atul Aneja

MANAMA (Bahrain) March 24. As the military campaign against Iraq, led by the United States, entered its fourth day, early signs are emerging that instead of a swift and decisive victory, the Anglo-American forces are likely to face a long haul.

Two clear indicators have emerged that the war may not end soon. First, the U.S. does not appear to have won the psychological war it launched against the Iraqi regime, even before the first bombs landed on Baghdad. Consequently, the Iraqi regime has not, as yet, shown signs of becoming dysfunctional. Iraqi command and control over its military has continued to stay intact, discouraging the possibility of a swift capitulation by the regime of Saddam Hussein.

This became evident today when the second armoured brigade of the Medina division — a part of the elite Iraq Republican Guard — did not crumble under the intense firepower the U.S. attack helicopters unleashed. The lethal Atcams surface-to-surface missiles were also launched to break the Iraqi resistance. In fact, in the battle that was being fought near Al Kut, southeast of Baghdad along the Tigris valley, the Medina brigade managed to bring down an Apache and a U.S. Black Hawk helicopter.

The fourth day of the campaign also saw the Iraqi President launching a counter salvo of psychological warfare. In a televised address, where he exhorted his forces to fight, the Iraqi ruler looked fit and in full control. Mr. Hussein timed his address to coincide with some of the reverses which the U.S. forces faced at An Nasiriyah on Sunday, for maximum impact. The U.S. lost 20 soldiers while at least five were captured in the fighting that erupted around An Nasiriyah.

The war could become time consuming as the U.S. supply lines stretching from Kuwait to Baghdad are becoming vulnerable.

The U.S. forces hurtled towards Baghdad in the hope that their presence would persuade the Republican Guards to lay down arms, expose the regime and bring the war to a swift end. But the forces might have made a major miscalculation.

While speeding towards Baghdad, the invading force by-passed several pockets of resistance in the towns and villages dotting the Tigris and Euphrates valleys. Consequently, it has left the flanks and rear areas vulnerable to harassment by the Iraqi "fidayeen" groups, who are being commanded by Mr. Hussein's son, Uday.

While the Anglo-American forces have made significant gains on the ground, such as the capture of the deep-water port of Umm Qasr and the oil infrastructure on the Faw Peninsula, their advance in southern Iraq appears to have slowed down. Basra, despite its political significance, has not yet fallen to the British troops.

Besides, the "mopping up" operations at Umm Qasr are turning out to be time-consuming.

In northern Iraq, U.S. forces are flowing in through the Bamerni air base in Kurdish areas, but the hard battles for the control of the northern oil fields of Mosul and Kirkuk are yet to begin.

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