The Hindu : Iraqi opposition wants role

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Mar 28, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Iraqi opposition wants role

By C. Raja Mohan

As the first week of the war cast a shadow between initial American expectations and the results from the battlefields, the Bush Administration might have to reconsider its current hands-off approach to the Iraqi Opposition groups.

The disparate Iraqi forces ranged against Saddam Hussein all support the American objective of regime change in Baghdad but are increasingly frustrated at the refusal of the Bush Administration to involve them in the war effort.

Despite cultivating the Iraqi Opposition groups for more than a year and bringing them together late last year at London, the Pentagon had planned to win the war on its own steam.

The U.S. hoped that it could achieve a quick victory, establish a measure of order inside Iraq after ousting the regime of Saddam Hussein and then hand over power to an interim set-up of local leaders.

The Iraqi Opposition figures have protested against the U.S. plans for American administration even for a short period of time. They argue that the Iraqi people will never support occupation by foreign armies.

The concerns in Washington, however, related to the deep divisions among the Iraqi Opposition. The Pentagon fears that allowing an interim Government led by Iraqi Opposition to fill the political vacuum after the war could lead to instability and conflict, the consequence of which could be the break-up of Iraq. The U.S. also fears that squabbles among the Iraqi groups in the post-Saddam phase would draw in Baghdad's neighbours into the fray.

But that debate has become academic for the moment with Saddam Hussein and the Baath party putting up a stiff resistance against the invading American forces. The Iraqi Opposition groups are now questioning the Pentagon's military strategy.

At a meeting earlier this week in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq, the Opposition leaders expressed frustration at the reluctance of the coalition forces to use the assistance they could potentially offer in defeating the regime of Saddam Hussein.

"The job of dealing with Saddam's thugs who are now attacking U.S. troops is not one for Americans, it is for the Iraqi people and for the forces led by the leadership of the Opposition," Ahmad Chalabi, the head of the Iraqi National Congress said. The INC is an umbrella organisation representing many Iraqi exiles and is based in London.

To an extent, the circumstances on the ground have forced Washington to slightly modify its initial plans. The inability to obtain the support of Turkey for the invasion of Iraq from the north led Washington to step up cooperation with Kurdish militias.

Kurdish leaders say they could do more to assist the coalition by helping in undermining the Iraqi resistance in the north. Jalal Talabani, the head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, says that the reluctance to coordinate with the Opposition groups is one of the "biggest gaps" in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

With a military stalemate on the ground, the U.S. is finding it very difficult to get across the message that this is a war for liberation of the Iraqi people. The deliberate decision in Washington not to have an Iraqi face to this war has made it harder to assert that claim.

The U.S. has been banking on a Shia rebellion in Basra to shape the international perceptions of the war and its outcome inside Iraq. It is in this context that growing contacts between the U.S. and Iran and the role of the Iraqi Shia Opposition backed by Teheran have become crucial.

Teheran has already promised the U.S. that it will assist in finding any American pilots downed on Iranian soil during the military operations against Iraq. Washington also expects Iran will cooperate by not sending its troops into Iraq during the war.

But if the going gets tougher for the U.S. in the next few days, Washington might want active cooperation from the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) based in Teheran in accelerating the fall of Basra.

In return, the U.S. might have to offer SCIRI and its mentors in Teheran considerable political role in shaping the post-war Iraq. That will be a difficult lump to swallow in Washington.

In Teheran, too, the obstacles to a deal with the United States are many. But then wars have a way of making strange bedfellows. A deal between the U.S. and Iran is certainly not at hand. But it cannot be ruled out, especially if Washington wants an early triumph in Basra.

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Opinion

Stories in this Section

Prevent an imminent disaster

A credible probe needed

Anti-Congressism

National judicial commission

Western media toeing official line

Iraqi opposition wants role