The Hindu : A drought this year too?

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Apr 17, 2003

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A drought this year too?

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI APRIL. 16. With last year's drought wreaking havoc in many parts of the country, the forecast for the 2003 south-west monsoon season comes as a rude shock. The rainfall during the season is likely to be below normal and there is a 21 per cent probability of drought recurring this year too, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted today.

In terms of statistics and parameters unveiled through a powerpoint presentation by the IMD Director-General, R.R. Kelkar, at a press conference here, rain between June and September is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

As last year's IMD forecast had gone awry and the department faced a lot of criticism, for this season's forecast it devised a new 8-parameter Power Regression Model.

Based on the newly-adopted model, the IMD's long range forecast hints at the probability of having below normal rain at 39 per cent and indicates a three per cent probability of excess rain.

Giving details of the new parameters and the forecast, Dr. Kelkar said the new model, which replaced the existing 16-parameter model, had enabled the IMD to advance the long range forecast by 40 days. The department would issue a long-range forecast update in mid-July.

The error of the 8-parameter model was said to be a mere five per cent this way or the other.

He explained that the new model would give the probability of the monsoon rain for the country as a whole in five different categories. These are: Drought (less than 90 per cent of long period average); Below Normal (90 to 97 per cent of LPA); Near Normal (98 to 102 per cent); Above Normal (103 to 110 per cent) and Excess (More than 110 per cent).

So far, the IMD did not have any model which could enable a modification to the long range forecast once it was issued on May 25. With the new model, it would be possible to generate a quantitative forecast update by mid-July.

By that time, the nature of the advance of the monsoon would have become known, and any disturbing trends in the El Nino phenomenon would be apparent.

Dr. Kelkar said the existing models for long range forecasts of monsoon rainfall over the three broad homogeneous regions — North-West India, North-East and Peninsula — have been refined and would be issued by July 15.

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